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The U.S. Treasury Premium

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2017

Author

Listed:
  • Wenxin Du
  • Joanne Im
  • Jesse Schreger

Abstract

We quantify the difference in the convenience yield of U.S. Treasuries and the bonds of near default-free sovereigns by measuring the gap between the FX swap-implied dollar yield paid by foreign governments and the U.S. Treasury dollar yield. We call this wedge the “U.S. Treasury Premium.” We find that this premium was approximately 21 basis points for five-year bonds prior to the Global Financial Crisis, increased up to 90 basis points during the crisis, and has disappeared since the crisis with the post-crisis mean at -8 basis points. We show the decline in the premium cannot be explained away by credit risk or FX swap market mispricings. In addition, we present evidence that the relative supply of government bonds in the United States and foreign countries affects the premium.
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Suggested Citation

  • Wenxin Du & Joanne Im & Jesse Schreger, 2017. "The U.S. Treasury Premium," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2017 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13963
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis E. Warnock, 2008. "Cross-Border Returns Differentials," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1495-1530.
    2. Stefan Avdjiev & Wenxin Du & Catherine Koch & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "The dollar, bank leverage and the deviation from covered interest parity," BIS Working Papers 592, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein, 2015. "A Comparative-Advantage Approach to Government Debt Maturity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1683-1722, August.
    4. Rosen Valchev, 2017. "Bond Convenience Yields and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 943, Boston College Department of Economics.
    5. Du, Wenxin & Schreger, Jesse, 2013. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 1094, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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