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Robust identification of investor beliefs

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaohong Chen

    (Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520)

  • Lars Peter Hansen

    (Department of Economics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637; Department of Statistics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637; Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637)

  • Peter G. Hansen

    (MIT Sloan School of Management, Cambridge, MA 02142)

Abstract

This paper develops a method informed by data and models to recover information about investor beliefs. Our approach uses information embedded in forward-looking asset prices in conjunction with asset pricing models. We step back from presuming rational expectations and entertain potential belief distortions bounded by a statistical measure of discrepancy. Additionally, our method allows for the direct use of sparse survey evidence to make these bounds more informative. Within our framework, market-implied beliefs may differ from those implied by rational expectations due to behavioral/psychological biases of investors, ambiguity aversion, or omitted permanent components to valuation. Formally, we represent evidence about investor beliefs using a nonlinear expectation function deduced using model-implied moment conditions and bounds on statistical divergence. We illustrate our method with a prototypical example from macrofinance using asset market data to infer belief restrictions for macroeconomic growth rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaohong Chen & Lars Peter Hansen & Peter G. Hansen, 2020. "Robust identification of investor beliefs," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(52), pages 33130-33140, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:117:y:2020:p:33130-33140
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hansen, Peter G., 2022. "New formulations of ambiguous volatility with an application to optimal dynamic contracting," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    2. Pujian Yang & Liu Yang, 2025. "Change of the disposition effect and investor sentiment," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(5), pages 489-505, September.
    3. Pavel Ciaian & Andrej Cupak & Pirmin Fessler & d'Artis Kancs, 2022. "Environmental-Social-Governance Preferences and the Holding of Crypto-Assets," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2022/07, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    4. Peter G. Hansen, 2021. "New Formulations of Ambiguous Volatility with an Application to Optimal Dynamic Contracting," Papers 2101.12306, arXiv.org.
    5. Ghosh, Anisha & Julliard, Christian & Taylor, Alex. P, 2025. "An information-theoretic asset pricing model," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 126155, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Zhao, Dongxu & Li, Kai, 2022. "Bounded rationality, adaptive behaviour, and asset prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Rahman, Oriana & Semenov, Andrei, 2025. "Subjective probabilities under behavioral heuristics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    8. Pavel Ciaian & Andrej Cupak & Pirmin Fessler & d’Artis Kancs, 2022. "Environmental and Social Preferences and Investments in Crypto-Assets," JRC Research Reports JRC129919, Joint Research Centre.
    9. Qiu, Chen & Otsu, Taisuke, 2022. "Information theoretic approach to high dimensional multiplicative models: stochastic discount factor and treatment effect," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110494, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Bordalo, Pedro & Gennaioli, Nicola & La Porta, Rafael & Shleifer, Andrei, 2025. "Finance without exotic risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    11. Altan Pazarbaşı & Paul Schneider & Grigory Vilkov, 2024. "Dispersion of Beliefs Bounds: Sentimental Recovery," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(12), pages 8284-8300, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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