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Capturing the Financial Cycle in Euro Area Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Hiebert, Paul
  • Klaus, Benjamin
  • Peltonen, Tuomas A.
  • Schüler, Yves S.
  • Welz, Peter

Abstract

This special feature discusses ways of measuring financial cycles for macro-prudential policymaking. It presents some estimates and empirical characteristics of financial cycles. Existing studies on financial cycle measurement remain quite nascent in comparison with the voluminous literature on business cycles. In this context, two approaches – turning point and spectral analysis – are used to capture financial and business cycles at the country level. The results of the empirical analysis suggest that financial cycles tend to be more volatile than business cycles in the euro area, albeit with strong cross-country heterogeneity. Both aspects underscore the relevance of robust financial cycle estimates for macro-prudential policy design in euro area countries. JEL Classification: G00

Suggested Citation

  • Hiebert, Paul & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Schüler, Yves S. & Welz, Peter, 2014. "Capturing the Financial Cycle in Euro Area Countries," Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:fsrart:2014:0002:2
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Schüler, Yves Stephan & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2015. "Characterising the financial cycle: A multivariate and time-varying approach," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112985, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Kok, Christoffer & Gross, Marco & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "The impact of bank capital on economic activity - evidence from a mixed-cross-section GVAR model," Working Paper Series 1888, European Central Bank.
    3. Mundra, Sruti & Bicchal, Motilal, 2024. "Financial cycle comovement with monetary and macroprudential policy and global factors: Evidence from India," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Galati, Gabriele & Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & Vlekke, Marente, 2016. "Measuring financial cycles in a model-based analysis: Empirical evidence for the United States and the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 83-87.
    5. Schüler, Yves S., 2018. "On the cyclical properties of Hamilton's regression filter," Discussion Papers 03/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Harendra Behera & Saurabh Sharma, 2022. "Characterizing India’s Financial Cycle," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(2), pages 152-183, June.
    7. Schüler, Yves S. & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Hiebert, Paul, 2017. "Coherent financial cycles for G-7 countries: Why extending credit can be an asset," ESRB Working Paper Series 43, European Systemic Risk Board.
    8. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2016. "Small open economies in the vast oceanof global high finance," Economics wp73, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    9. Bouvatier, Vincent & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Rehault, Pierre-Nicolas, 2022. "Measuring credit procyclicality: A new database," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Gabriele Galati & Irma Hindrayanto & Siem Jan Koopman & Marente Vlekke, 2016. "Measuring financial cycles with a model-based filter: Empirical evidence for the United States and the euro area," DNB Working Papers 495, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    11. Patrik Kupkovic & Martin Suster, 2020. "Identifying the Financial Cycle in Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2020, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    12. Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2022. "Measuring financial cycles: Empirical evidence for Germany, United Kingdom and United States of America," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 599-630.
    13. Schüler, Yves S., 2018. "Detrending and financial cycle facts across G7 countries: mind a spurious medium term!," Working Paper Series 2138, European Central Bank.
    14. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2016. "The long history of financial boom-bust cycles in Iceland - Part II: Financial cycles," Economics wp72, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    15. Łukasz Kurowski, 2021. "Financial cycle − A critical analysis of the methodology for its identification," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(3), pages 99-116.
    16. Cicilia Anggadewi Harun & Wishnu Mahraddika & Jati Waluyo & Pakasa Bary & Rieska Indah Astuti & Fauzan Rachman & Rizky Primayudha & Dwi Oktaviyanti & Euis Aqmaliyah, 2021. "Business And Financial Cycle In Indonesia: An Integrated Approach," Working Papers WP/05/2021, Bank Indonesia.
    17. Gross, Marco & Henry, Jerome & Semmler, Willi, 2018. "Destabilizing Effects Of Bank Overleveraging On Real Activity—An Analysis Based On A Threshold Mcs-Gvar," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(7), pages 1750-1768, October.
    18. Adél Bosch & Steven F. Koch, 2020. "The South African Financial Cycle and its Relation to Household Deleveraging," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 145-173, June.
    19. Koong, Seow Shin & Law, Siong Hook & Ibrahim, Mansor H., 2017. "Credit expansion and financial stability in Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 339-350.
    20. Samarina, Anna & Zhang, Lu & Bezemer, Dirk, 2017. "Credit cycle coherence in the eurozone: Was there a euro effect?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 77-98.
    21. Santander Quino, Camila Miriam, 2022. "Ciclos económicos y financieros: Una aproximación empírica para Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 1/2022, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cycle; macro-prudential policy; volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

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