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Destabilizing Effects Of Bank Overleveraging On Real Activity—An Analysis Based On A Threshold Mcs-Gvar

Author

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  • Gross, Marco
  • Henry, Jerome
  • Semmler, Willi

Abstract

We investigate the consequences of overleveraging and the potential for destabilizing effects arising from financial- and real-sector interactions. In a theoretical framework, we model overleveraging and demonstrate how a highly leveraged banking system can lead to unstable dynamics and downward spirals. Inspired by models developed by Brunnermeier, Sannikov and Stein, we empirically measure the deviation-from-optimal-leverage for a sample of large EU banks. This measure of overleveraging is used to condition the joint dynamics of credit flows and macroeconomic activity in a large-scale regime change model: a Threshold Mixed-Cross-Section Global Vector Autoregressive (T-MCS-GVAR). The regime-switching component of the model is meant to make the relationship between credit and real activity dependent on the extent to which the banking system is overleveraged. We find significant nonlinearities as a function of overleverage. The farther the observed leverage in the banking system from optimal leverage, the more detrimental is the effect of a deleveraging shock on credit supply and economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Gross, Marco & Henry, Jerome & Semmler, Willi, 2018. "Destabilizing Effects Of Bank Overleveraging On Real Activity—An Analysis Based On A Threshold Mcs-Gvar," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(7), pages 1750-1768, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:22:y:2018:i:07:p:1750-1768_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Pallante, Gianluca & Guerini, Mattia & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2025. "Robust-less-fragile: Tackling systemic risk and financial contagion in a macro agent-based model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Joe‐Ming Lee & Ku‐Hsieh Chen & I‐Chia Chang & Chih‐Chun Chen, 2022. "Determinants of non‐performing loans, firm's corporate governance and macroeconomic factors," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 88-98, January.
    3. J. Paul Elhorst & Marco Gross & Eugen Tereanu, 2021. "Cross‐Sectional Dependence And Spillovers In Space And Time: Where Spatial Econometrics And Global Var Models Meet," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 192-226, February.
    4. Lucidi, Francesco Simone & Semmler, Willi, 2023. "Long-run scarring effects of meltdowns in a small-scale nonlinear quadratic model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Samar Issa, 2020. "Life after Debt: The Effects of Overleveraging on Conventional and Islamic Banks," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-46, June.
    6. Grzegorz Halaj & Ruben Hipp, 2024. "Decomposing Systemic Risk: The Roles of Contagion and Common Exposures," Staff Working Papers 24-19, Bank of Canada.
    7. Dorothea Schäfer & Willi Semmler, 2024. "Is interest rate hiking a recipe for missing several goals of monetary policy—beating inflation, preserving financial stability, and keeping up output growth?," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(2), pages 235-254, June.
    8. Balke, Nathan S. & Zeng, Zheng & Zhang, Ren, 2021. "Identifying credit demand, financial intermediation, and supply of funds shocks: A structural VAR approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    9. Yi, Xingjian & Liu, Sheng & Wu, Zhouheng, 2022. "What drives credit expansion worldwide?——An empirical investigation with long-term cross-country panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 225-242.
    10. Issa, Samar & Gevorkyan, Aleksandr V., 2022. "Optimal corporate leverage and speculative cycles: an empirical estimation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 478-491.
    11. Hałaj, Grzegorz & Hipp, Ruben, 2024. "Decomposing systemic risk: the roles of contagion and common exposures," Working Paper Series 2929, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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