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Is interest rate hiking a recipe for missing several goals of monetary policy—beating inflation, preserving financial stability, and keeping up output growth?

Author

Listed:
  • Dorothea Schäfer

    (German Institute of Economic Research DIW Berlin
    Jönköping University
    University Bremen)

  • Willi Semmler

    (The New School for Social Research (NSSR))

Abstract

After the corona crisis, and even more so when the war in Ukraine struck, the price levels of all goods in the US and Europe rose surprisingly quickly and persistently. The FED began in March 2022 and the ECB in July 2022 with historically unique interest rate increases to combat the wage-price spiral that had not yet begun. In this article we show that energy, commodities and food were the main drivers of inflation. For this reason, central banks' goal of weakening demand for labor through historically large interest rate hikes seems unwise. We argue that the current measures cannot achieve all of their objectives: slowing inflation, stabilizing financial markets and sustaining growth. If interest rates remain high, but external forces emerge with a lasting effect and keep inflation rates high, especially in smaller emerging countries, it will be difficult to counteract this on a country or regional basis through high interest rate policy and national control of the price- and wage-Phillips curve. Significant negative side effects of interest rate hikes increase the risk of not making the necessary investments and, in particular, weaken the bargaining power of particularly vulnerable employment groups. Other tools are needed to curb inflation and keep it under control, for example more investment in sectors with supply disruptions and a massive expansion of investment in renewable energy.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorothea Schäfer & Willi Semmler, 2024. "Is interest rate hiking a recipe for missing several goals of monetary policy—beating inflation, preserving financial stability, and keeping up output growth?," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(2), pages 235-254, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurase:v:14:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s40822-023-00256-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s40822-023-00256-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dorothea Schäfer & Andreas Stephan & Jenniffer Solórzano Mosquera, 2017. "Family ownership: does it matter for funding and success of corporate innovations?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 931-951, April.
    2. Febi Jensen & Dorothea Schäfer & Andreas Stephan, 2019. "Financial Constraints of Firms with Environmental Innovation," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 88(3), pages 43-65.
    3. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    4. Gross, Marco & Henry, Jerome & Semmler, Willi, 2018. "Destabilizing Effects Of Bank Overleveraging On Real Activity—An Analysis Based On A Threshold Mcs-Gvar," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(7), pages 1750-1768, October.
    5. Hanna Hottenrott & Bettina Peters, 2012. "Innovative Capability and Financing Constraints for Innovation: More Money, More Innovation?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1126-1142, November.
    6. Carl Chiarella & Willi Semmler & Chih-Ying Hsiao & Lebogang Mateane, 2016. "Sustainable Asset Accumulation and Dynamic Portfolio Decisions," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, Springer, number 978-3-662-49229-1.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rate hike; Inflation; Banking crisis; Labor market; Central banks; Energy crisis; Corona crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General

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