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Some Like it Hot: Assessing Longer-Term Labor Market Benefits from a High-Pressure Economy

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  • Julie L. Hotchkiss

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Georgia State University)

  • Robert E. Moore

    (Georgia State University)

Abstract

This paper finds that both "hot" and "cold" economic environments affect current and future labor market outcomes (i.e., time spent unemployed and out of the labor force and hourly pay) differentially between advantaged and disadvantaged groups. Using longitudinal data, we find that while disadvantaged workers reap greater benefits from exposure to hot economies, that benefit alone is not enough to offset the greater cost of exposure to cold economic environments. This suggests that an over-expansive policy is limited in its ability to achieve lasting reductions in labor market gaps, which would likely be better served by a policy prioritizing reduced economic volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Julie L. Hotchkiss & Robert E. Moore, 2022. "Some Like it Hot: Assessing Longer-Term Labor Market Benefits from a High-Pressure Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 193-243, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2022:q:2:a:5
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    Cited by:

    1. Kalee Burns & Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2019. "Migration Constraints and Disparate Responses to Changing Job Opportunities," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2019-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Stephanie R. Aaronson & Mary C. Daly & William L. Wascher & David W. Wilcox, 2019. "Okun Revisited: Who Benefits Most from a Strong Economy?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 333-404.
    3. Bruce Fallick & Pawel Krolikowski, 2022. "Excess Persistence in Employment of Disadvantaged Workers," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    4. Michael T. Kiley, 2024. "Monetary Policy, Employment Shortfalls, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-032, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    6. repec:fip:a00001:90108 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Didem Tuzemen & Deepak Venkatasubramanian, 2023. "A Strong Labor Market Has Narrowed Gaps in Participation and Employment between Black and White Non-College Men," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 0(no.1), pages 1-16, November.
    8. Laura Feiveson & Nils M. Gornemann & Julie L. Hotchkiss & Karel Mertens & Jae W. Sim, 2020. "Distributional Considerations for Monetary Policy Strategy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Mr. John C Bluedorn & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2019. "Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 2019/114, International Monetary Fund.
    10. repec:fip:a00001:88147 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Tomaz Cajner & John Coglianese & Joshua Montes, 2021. "The Long-Lived Cyclicality of the Labor Force Participation Rate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-047, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Michael T. Kiley, 2024. "Monetary Policy Strategies to Foster Price Stability and a Strong Labor Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-033, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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