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Some Like It Hot: Assessing Longer-Term Labor Market Benefits from a High-Pressure Economy

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Abstract

This paper explores evidence for positive hysteresis in the labor market. Using data from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth, we find that negative labor market outcomes during high unemployment periods are mitigated by exposure to a high-pressure economy during the preceding expansion. Breaking total exposure into intensity and duration suggests that these two dimensions have differing impacts. However, the benefits of exposure are not enough to overcome the greater negative impact of high unemployment periods on labor market outcomes of disadvantaged groups, making extension of high-pressure economic environments efficacious in reducing labor market gaps.

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  • Julie L. Hotchkiss & Robert E. Moore, 2018. "Some Like It Hot: Assessing Longer-Term Labor Market Benefits from a High-Pressure Economy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2018-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2018-01
    DOI: 10.29338/wp2018-1b
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    Cited by:

    1. Kalee Burns & Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2019. "Migration Constraints and Disparate Responses to Changing Job Opportunities," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2019-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Stephanie R. Aaronson & Mary C. Daly & William L. Wascher & David W. Wilcox, 2019. "Okun Revisited: Who Benefits Most from a Strong Economy?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 333-404.
    3. Bruce Fallick & Pawel Krolikowski, 2022. "Excess Persistence in Employment of Disadvantaged Workers," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    4. Michael T. Kiley, 2024. "Monetary Policy, Employment Shortfalls, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-032, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    6. Kalee Burns & Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2023. "The Role of Social Costs in Response to Labor Market Opportunities: Differences across Race," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Kalee Burns & Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2020. "Mismatch of Jobs and People: Do Migration Constraints Put Racial Minorities at a Disadvantage?," Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 2020(6), pages 1-19, June.
    8. Didem Tuzemen & Deepak Venkatasubramanian, 2023. "A Strong Labor Market Has Narrowed Gaps in Participation and Employment between Black and White Non-College Men," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 0(no.1), pages 1-16, November.
    9. Laura Feiveson & Nils M. Gornemann & Julie L. Hotchkiss & Karel Mertens & Jae W. Sim, 2020. "Distributional Considerations for Monetary Policy Strategy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Mr. John C Bluedorn & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2019. "Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 2019/114, International Monetary Fund.
    11. repec:fip:a00001:88147 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Tomaz Cajner & John Coglianese & Joshua Montes, 2021. "The Long-Lived Cyclicality of the Labor Force Participation Rate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-047, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Michael T. Kiley, 2024. "Monetary Policy Strategies to Foster Price Stability and a Strong Labor Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-033, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    hysteresis; unemployment; labor market gaps; labor force participation; wage gaps;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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