IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/iisecd/2022_001.html

Ciclos económicos y financieros: Una aproximación empírica para Bolivia

Author

Listed:
  • Camila Miriam Santander Quino

    (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana)

Abstract

A partir de las crisis financieras de los últimos años y el creciente desarrollo del sistema financiero, ha surgido la necesidad de entender la relación entre el sector financiero y el sector real de la economía desde una visión integral. Muchos autores han abordado esta relación desde el campo empírico de los ciclos económicos y la reciente noción de los ciclos financieros. En este sentido, el presente trabajo de investigación busca determinar de manera empírica la relación entre el ciclo económico y financiero para el caso boliviano, en el periodo 1990-2019. Mediante el enfoque de filtros estadísticos y puntos de inflexión, se encuentra que la duración y la amplitud de las fases del ciclo financiero son mayores que las del ciclo económico. Además, se encuentra que el ciclo financiero tiene un comportamiento rezagado respecto al ciclo económico y que las fases de ambos están sincronizadas el 60% del tiempo. Posteriormente, mediante un modelo de vectores autoregresivos (VAR) se emplea la prueba de causalidad de Granger, así como las funciones impulso respuesta y la descomposición de la varianza. Se encuentra causalidad bidireccional entre los ciclos, siendo más fuerte y persistente del ciclo económico al financiero. Asimismo, se identifica que la bicausalidad puede deberse a la existencia de una tercera variable que explica a ambas, que podría ser del sector externo o una variable de política económica.

Suggested Citation

  • Camila Miriam Santander Quino, 2022. "Ciclos económicos y financieros: Una aproximación empírica para Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 1/2022, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:iisecd:2022_001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iisec.ucb.edu.bo/assets_iisec/publicacion/202201.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schüler, Yves Stephan & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2015. "Characterising the financial cycle: A multivariate and time-varying approach," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112985, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 303-344.
    3. José Eduardo Gómez G. & Jair Ojeda Joya & Fernando Tenjo Galarza & Héctor Manuel Zárate Solano, 2013. "The Interdependence between Credit and Real Business Cycles in Latin American Economies," Borradores de Economia 768, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Costas Karfakis & Eftychia Karfaki, 2018. "Is the financial cycle a leading indicator of real output during expansions and contractions? A quantile analysis for Greece," Discussion Paper Series 2018_02, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Feb 2018.
    5. Davaajargal Luvsannyam & Khuslen Batmunkh & Khulan Buyankhishig, 2019. "Dating the business cycle : Evidence from Mongolia," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 19(2), pages 59-66.
    6. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    10. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    11. Karfakis, Costas & Karfaki, Eftychia, 2018. "Is the financial cycle a leading indicator of real output during expansions and contractions? A quantile analysis for Greece," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & Hector Manuel Zarate & Juan Sebastian Amador & Celina Gaitan-Maldonado, 2015. "Credit and business cycles: Causal effects in the frequency domain," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 33(78), pages 176-189.
    13. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2016. "Credit and business cycles’ relationship: evidence from Spain," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(3), pages 149-171, December.
    14. Adam Cagliarini & Fiona Price, 2017. "Exploring the Link between the Macroeconomic and Financial Cycles," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Jonathan Hambur & John Simon (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in a World of Low Interest Rates, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    15. Rünstler, Gerhard, 2016. "How distinct are financial cycles from business cycles?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 26.
    16. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, January.
    17. Hiebert, Paul & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Schüler, Yves S. & Welz, Peter, 2014. "Capturing the Financial Cycle in Euro Area Countries," Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    18. Beirne, John, 2020. "Financial cycles in asset markets and regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 358-374.
    19. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    20. Stremmel, Hanno, 2015. "Capturing the financial cycle in Europe," Working Paper Series 1811, European Central Bank.
    21. Greg Farrell & Esti Kemp, 2020. "Measuring the Financial Cycle in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 123-144, June.
    22. Schüler, Yves S., 2018. "Detrending and financial cycle facts across G7 countries: mind a spurious medium term!," Working Paper Series 2138, European Central Bank.
    23. Till Strohsal & Christian R. Proaño & Jürgen Wolters, 2019. "Assessing the cross-country interaction of financial cycles: evidence from a multivariate spectral analysis of the USA and the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 385-398, August.
    24. Fernando Arias Rodríguez & Celina Gaitán Maldonado & Johanna López Velandia, 2014. "Las entidades financieras a lo largo del ciclo de negocios: ¿está el ciclo financiero sincronizado con el ciclo de negocios?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(75), pages 28-40, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    2. Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2022. "Measuring financial cycles: Empirical evidence for Germany, United Kingdom and United States of America," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 599-630.
    3. Skare, Marinko & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Porada-Rochon, Małgorzata, 2025. "Isolating financial cycles using the fractional cyclical model in selected economies: 1970–2019," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 67-77.
    4. Harendra Behera & Saurabh Sharma, 2022. "Characterizing India’s Financial Cycle," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(2), pages 152-183, June.
    5. Khwazi Magubane & Phocenah Nyatanga & Ntokozo Nzimande, 2024. "Financial cycle synchronization in the advanced and systemic middle-income economies: evidence from a dynamic factor model," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 13(7), pages 301-314, October.
    6. Adél Bosch & Steven F. Koch, 2020. "The South African Financial Cycle and its Relation to Household Deleveraging," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 145-173, June.
    7. Patrik Kupkovic & Martin Suster, 2020. "Identifying the Financial Cycle in Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2020, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    8. Khwazi Magubane, 2024. "Financial cycles synchronisation in South Africa. A dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) Approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 2321069-232, December.
    9. Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Papers 1038, World Trade Institute.
    10. Schüler, Yves S. & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Hiebert, Paul, 2017. "Coherent financial cycles for G-7 countries: Why extending credit can be an asset," ESRB Working Paper Series 43, European Systemic Risk Board.
    11. Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 132-144.
    12. Galati, Gabriele & Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & Vlekke, Marente, 2016. "Measuring financial cycles in a model-based analysis: Empirical evidence for the United States and the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 83-87.
    13. Schüler, Yves S., 2018. "Detrending and financial cycle facts across G7 countries: mind a spurious medium term!," Working Paper Series 2138, European Central Bank.
    14. Christian Menden & Christian R. Proaño, 2017. "Dissecting the financial cycle with dynamic factor models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 1965-1994, December.
    15. Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    16. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2016. "Credit and business cycles’ relationship: evidence from Spain," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(3), pages 149-171, December.
    17. Khwazi Magubane, 2024. "Exploring causal interactions between macroprudential policy and financial cycles in South Africa," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 13(5), pages 513-531, July.
    18. Gallegati, Marco, 2026. "Financial and business cycles in the US: A non-parametric time–frequency investigation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    19. Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2022. "Financial cycles across G7 economies: A view from wavelet analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    20. Gabriele Galati & Irma Hindrayanto & Siem Jan Koopman & Marente Vlekke, 2016. "Measuring financial cycles with a model-based filter: Empirical evidence for the United States and the euro area," DNB Working Papers 495, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:iisecd:2022_001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tirza Aguilar The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Tirza Aguilar to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iisecbo.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.