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La crisis actual y la culpabilidad de la teoría macroeconómica

  • Paul Ormerod

    ()

    (Volterra Consulting)

The ideas of modern macroeconomics provided the intellectual justification of the economic policies of the last 10 to 15 years. It is these ideas which the financial crisis falsified. The dominant paradigm in macroeconomic theory over the past 30 years has been that of rational agents who form rational expectations about the future and make optimal decisions. The aim of the paper is to study how these agents deal with risk and uncertainty, the source of the problems of the discipline of economics, the economy and the financial crisis. Modern macroeconomics has responsibility for the financial crisis, because imposes its intellectual foundation to a world that operates in situations involving risk that are systematically underestimated and leads to not recognized situations of genuine uncertainty.

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File URL: http://www.uexternado.edu.co/facecono/ecoinstitucional/workingpapers/pormerod22.pdf
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Article provided by Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía in its journal Revista de Economía Institucional.

Volume (Year): 12 (2010)
Issue (Month): 22 (January-June)
Pages: 111-128

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Handle: RePEc:rei:ecoins:v:12:y:2010:i:22:p:111-128
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  1. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2008. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Michael Woodford, 2009. "Convergence in Macroeconomics: Elements of the New Synthesis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 267-79, January.
  3. Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Some skeptical observations on real business cycle theory," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 23-27.
  4. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  5. Olivier Blanchard, 2009. "The Crisis: Basic Mechanisms and Appropriate Policies," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(1), pages 3-14, 04.
  6. Paul Ormerod & Rich Colbaugh, 2006. "Cascades of Failure and Extinction in Evolving Complex Systems," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 9(4), pages 9.
  7. Vasiliki Plerou & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Bernd Rosenow & Luis A. Nunes Amaral & H. Eugene Stanley, 1999. "Universal and non-universal properties of cross-correlations in financial time series," Papers cond-mat/9902283, arXiv.org.
  8. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
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