Random Walks And Fractal Structures In Agricultural Commodity Futures Prices
This paper investigates whether the assumption of Brownian motion often used to describe commodity price movements is satisfied. Using historical data from 17 commodity futures contracts specific tests of fractional and ordinary Brownian motion are conducted. The analyses are conducted under the null hypothesis of ordinary Brownian motion against the alternative of persistent or ergodic fractional Brownian motion. Tests for fractional Brownian motion are based on a variance ratio test and compared with conventional R-S analyses. However, standard errors based on Monte Carlo simulations are quite high, meaning that the acceptance region for the null hypothesis is large. The results indicate that for the most part, the null hypothesis of ordinary Brownian motion cannot be rejected for 14 of 17 series. The three series that did not satisfy the tests were rejected because they violated the stationarity property of the random walk hypothesis.
|Date of creation:||2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://fare.uoguelph.ca/|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-84, March.
- C. H. Hommes, 2001.
"Financial markets as nonlinear adaptive evolutionary systems,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 149-167.
- Hommes, C.H., 2000. "Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-014/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
- Comte, F. & Renault, E., 1996. "Long memory continuous time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 101-149, July.
- B. Mandelbrot, 1972. "Statistical Methodology for Nonperiodic Cycles: From the Covariance To R/S Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 1, number 3, pages 259-290 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- L. C. G. Rogers, 1997. "Arbitrage with Fractional Brownian Motion," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 95-105.
- Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Booth, G. Geoffrey & Kaen, Fred R. & Koveos, Peter E., 1982. "R/S analysis of foreign exchange rates under two international monetary regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 407-415.
- Boyle, Phelim & Broadie, Mark & Glasserman, Paul, 1997. "Monte Carlo methods for security pricing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1267-1321, June.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
- Billy P. Helms & Fred R. Kaen & Robert E. Rosenman, 1984. "Memory in commodity futures contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(4), pages 559-567, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uguewp:34151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.