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A Natural Experiment in Monetary Policy Covering Three Episodes of Growth and Decline in the Economy and the Stock Market

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  • Milton Friedman

Abstract

The third of three episodes in a major natural experiment in monetary policy that started more than 80 years ago is just now coming to an end. The experiment consists in observing the effect on the economy and the stock market of the monetary policies followed during and after three very similar periods of rapid economic growth in response to rapid technological change: the booms of the 1920s in the United States, the 1980s in Japan and the 1990s in the United States. In this experiment, the quantity of money is the counterpart of the experimenter's input. The performance of the economy and the level of the stock market are the counterpart of the experimenter's output. The results of this natural experiment are clear, at least for major ups and downs: what happens to the quantity of money has a determinative effect on what happens to national income and to stock prices. The results strongly support Anna Schwartz's and my 1963 conjecture about the role of monetary policy in the Great Contraction. They also support the view that monetary policy deserves much credit for the mildness of the recession that followed the collapse of the U.S. boom in late 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Milton Friedman, 2005. "A Natural Experiment in Monetary Policy Covering Three Episodes of Growth and Decline in the Economy and the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 145-150, Fall.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:19:y:2005:i:4:p:145-150
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/089533005775196787
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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/089533005775196787
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    Cited by:

    1. Keshab Bhattarai, 2015. "Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Advanced and Emerging Economies," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 178-195, February.
    2. Devereux, John & Dwyer, Gerald P., 2016. "What determines output losses after banking crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 69-94.
    3. KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric, 2023. "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and its Effects: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of its Quantitative Easing Programs," Thesis Commons d7pvg, Center for Open Science.
    4. Richard C. K. Burdekin & Samuel Harrison, 2021. "Relative Stock Market Performance during the Coronavirus Pandemic: Virus vs. Policy Effects in 80 Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, April.
    5. Dwyer, Gerald P. & Lothian, James R., 2012. "International and historical dimensions of the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-9.
    6. KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric, 2023. "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and Its Long-Term Impact: An Interrupted Time-Series Natural Experimental Analysis," OSF Preprints 53qbm, Center for Open Science.
    7. Cendejas Bueno, José Luis & Muñoz, Félix & Castañeda, Juan, 2013. "Expansión monetaria y ciclo económico en España: 1998-2012," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2013/09, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    8. Lothian, James R. & McCarthy, Cornelia H., 2009. "The behavior of money and other economic variables: Two natural experiments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1204-1220, November.
    9. Damonte, L. Taylor & Woodside, Arch G., 2021. "Are lodging revenue cycles leading indicators for shifts in financial well-being?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 465-473.
    10. Keshab Bhattarai, 2015. "Financial deepening and economic growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(11), pages 1133-1150, March.
    11. Cantoni, Davide & Yuchtman, Noam, 2020. "Historical Natural Experiments: Bridging Economics and Economic History," CEPR Discussion Papers 14401, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Tim Congdon, 2021. "Interest rates or quantity of money? Edward Nelson on Milton Friedman," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 320-335, June.
    13. Meixing DAI, 2007. "A two-pillar strategy to keep inflation expectations at bay: A basic theoretical framework," Working Papers of BETA 2007-20, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    14. Dai, Meixing, 2007. "The design of a ‘two-pillar’ monetary policy strategy," MPRA Paper 14403, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009.
    15. Sylvie Rivot, 2015. "Rule-based frameworks in historical perspective: Keynes' and Friedman's monetary policies versus contemporary policy-rules," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 601-633, August.
    16. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2015. "Ewolucja pogladow Miltona Friedmana, a ocena polityki pienieznej Fed i EBC w okresie kryzysu finansowego," Working Papers 168/2015, Institute of Economic Research, revised Dec 2015.
    17. Meixing DAI, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," Working Papers of BETA 2009-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    18. Francisco Rosende, 2009. "La Macroeconomía y la Crisis: ¿La Crisis de la Macroeconomía?," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 46(134), pages 161-182.
    19. Charles G. Leathers & J. Patrick Raines, 2012. "Intuitive psychology, natural experiments, and the Greenspan‐Bernanke conceptual framework for responding to financial crises," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(4), pages 281-295, March.
    20. José Luis Cendejas Bueno & Félix-Fernando Muñoz & Juan Castañeda, 2014. "When Money Matters," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 15(2), pages 77-110, April.
    21. Meixing DAI & Moïse SIDIROPOULOS, 2009. "Money growth rule and macro-financial stability under inflation-targeting regime," Working Papers of BETA 2009-05, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

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