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A Quantitative Analysis of Countercyclical Capital Buffers

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  • Miguel Faria-e-Castro

Abstract

What are the quantitative macroeconomic effects of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB)? I study this question in a nonlinear DSGE model with occasional financial crises, which is calibrated and combined with US data to estimate sequences of structural shocks. Raising capital buffers during leverage expansions can reduce the frequency of crises by more than half. A quantitative application to the 2007-08 financial crisis shows that the CCyB in the 2.5% range (as in the Federal Reserve's current framework) could have greatly mitigated the financial panic of 2008, for a cumulative gain of 29% in aggregate consumption. The threat of raising capital requirements is effective even if this tool is not used in equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Faria-e-Castro, 2019. "A Quantitative Analysis of Countercyclical Capital Buffers," Working Papers 2019-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 01 Jan 2020.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2019-008
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2019.008
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    Cited by:

    1. Daisuke Ikeda & Hidehiko Matsumoto, 2021. "Procyclical Leverage and Crisis Probability in a Macroeconomic Model of Bank Runs," IMES Discussion Paper Series 21-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    2. Miguel Faria-e-Castro, 2019. "Can Countercyclical Capital Buffers Help Prevent a Financial Crisis?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 15, June.
    3. Arsenii Mishin, 2023. "Dynamic Bank Capital Regulation in the Presence of Shadow Banks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 965-990, December.
    4. Gulan, Adam & Jokivuolle, Esa & Verona, Fabio, 2022. "Optimal bank capital requirements: What do the macroeconomic models say?," BoF Economics Review 2/2022, Bank of Finland.
    5. Mark Gertler & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Andrea Prestipino, 2020. "Credit Booms, Financial Crises, and Macroprudential Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 8-33, August.
    6. Mikkelsen, Jakob & Poeschl, Johannes, 2019. "Banking Panic Risk and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 94729, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    countercyclical capital buffers; financial crises; macroprudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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