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Twin Default Crises

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  • Mendicino, Caterina
  • Nikolov, Kalin
  • Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco
  • Suarez, Javier
  • Supera, Dominik

Abstract

We study the interaction between borrowers' and banks' solvency in a quantitative macroeconomic model with financial frictions in which bank assets are a portfolio of defaultable loans. We show that ex-ante imperfect diversification of bank lending generates bank asset returns with limited upside but significant downside risk. The asymmetric distribution of these returns and their implications for the evolution of bank net worth are important for capturing the frequency and severity of twin default crises -simultaneous rises in firm and bank defaults associated with sizeable negative effects on economic activity. As a result, our model implies higher optimal capital requirements than common specifications of bank asset returns, which neglect or underestimate the impact of borrower default on bank solvency.

Suggested Citation

  • Mendicino, Caterina & Nikolov, Kalin & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Suarez, Javier & Supera, Dominik, 2020. "Twin Default Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 14427, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14427
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    Cited by:

    1. Beau Soederhuizen & Bert Kramer & Harro van Heuvelen & Rob Luginbuhl, 2021. "Optimal capital ratios for banks in the euro area," CPB Discussion Paper 429, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Sigurd Galaasen & Rustam Jamilov & Hélène Rey & Ragnar Juelsrud, 2020. "Granular credit risk," Working Paper 2020/15, Norges Bank.
    3. Mendicino, Caterina & Nikolov, Kalin & Ramirez, Juan-Rubio & Suarez, Javier & Supera, Dominik, 2021. "How much capital should banks hold?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 80.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank Fragility; Capital requirements; Default Risk; loan returns; non-diversifiable risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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