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Fiscal Multipliers and Financial Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Miguel Faria-e-Castro

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Abstract

I study the effects of the U.S. fiscal policy response to the Great Recession, accounting for both standard tools and financial sector interventions. A nonlinear model calibrated to the United States allows me to study the state-dependent effects of different fiscal policies. I combine the model with data on the fiscal policy response to find that the fall in consumption would have been one-third larger in the absence of that response, for a cumulative loss of 7.18%. Transfers and bank recapitalizations yielded the largest fiscal multipliers through new transmission channels that arise from linkages between household and bank balance sheets.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Faria-e-Castro, 2024. "Fiscal Multipliers and Financial Crises," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 728-747, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:106:y:2024:i:3:p:728-747
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01163
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    Citations

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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Miguel Faria-e-Castro, 2018. "What Are the Fiscal Costs of a (Great) Recession?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 22, pages 1-2.
    3. Ferrante, Francesco, 2019. "Risky lending, bank leverage and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 100-127.
    4. Dvalishvili, Archil & Dvalishvili, Mikheil & Thurston, Thom, 2024. "Nominal GDP growth targeting vs. Taylor rules in a model with financial frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    5. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2017. "Level and Volatility Shocks to Fiscal Policy: Term Structure Implications," 2017 Meeting Papers 258, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Thomas Philippon & Dimitri Vayanos, 2017. "The Analytics of the Greek Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-81.
    7. Miguel Faria-e-Castro, 2019. "A Quantitative Analysis of Countercyclical Capital Buffers," Working Papers 2019-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 01 Jan 2020.
    8. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    9. Paul, Pascal, 2020. "A macroeconomic model with occasional financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    10. Brinca, Pedro & Faria-e-Castro, Miguel & Ferreira, Miguel H. & Holter, Hans A. & Nóbrega, Valter, 2025. "The nonlinear effects of fiscal policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    11. Richard McManus & F. Gulcin Ozkan & Dawid Trzeciakiewicz, 2021. "Why are Fiscal Multipliers Asymmetric? The Role of Credit Constraints," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(349), pages 32-69, January.
    12. Tatiana Damjanovic & Vladislav Damjanovic & Charles Nolan, 2020. "Default, Bailouts and the Vertical Structure of Financial Intermediaries," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 154-180, October.
    13. Callum Jones & Virgiliu Midrigan & Thomas Philippon, 2022. "Household Leverage and the Recession," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2471-2505, September.
    14. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Philippon, Thomas & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2016. "The analytics of the Greek crisis: celebratory centenary issue," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67368, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Ioannides, Yannis & Philippon, Presenter Thomas & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Blanchard, Olivier & Steinsson, Jon & Uhlig, Harald & Alvarez, Fernando & Reis, Ricardo & Klein, Michael, 2017. "The Analytics of the Greek Crisis Discussion," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4z39g6vx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    16. Andrea Camilli & Marta Giagheddu, 2020. "Public debt and crowding-out: the role of housing wealth," Working Papers 441, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2020.
    17. Faria-e-Castro, Miguel, 2021. "Fiscal policy during a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    18. Alberto Polo, 2021. "Imperfect pass-through to deposit rates and monetary policy transmission," Bank of England working papers 933, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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