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Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles:Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Bednarek
  • Daniel Marcel te Kaat
  • Chang Ma
  • Alessandro Rebucci

Abstract

We study how capital flows affects German cities’ GDP growth depending on the state of their real estate markets. Identification exploits a policy framework assigning refugees to cities on a quasi-random basis and variation in nondevelopable area for the construction of an exposure measure to real estate market tightness. We estimate that the most exposed cities to real estate market tightness grew at least 1.9 percentage points more than the least exposed ones, cumulatively, from 2009 to 2014. Capital inflows shift credit to firms with more collateral, which leads firms to hire and invest more in response to these shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Bednarek & Daniel Marcel te Kaat & Chang Ma & Alessandro Rebucci, 2021. "Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles:Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(10), pages 5077-5134.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:34:y:2021:i:10:p:5077-5134.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhab017
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Qianwen & Qian, Tingyu & Wang, Hui & Sun, Chuanwang, 2025. "Exploring the value of green: The impact factors on China's second-hand green housing prices based on geographically weighted Lasso regressions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Boddin, Dominik & te Kaat, Daniel Marcel & Ma, Chang & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2025. "Portfolio flows and household portfolios," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    3. Martin Groiss & Nicolas Syrichas, 2025. "Monetary Policy, Property Prices and Rents: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0058, Berlin School of Economics.
    4. Umut Unal & Bernd Hayo & Isil Erol, 2022. "The Effect of Immigration on the German Housing Market," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202238, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    5. Daniel Carvalho & Etienne Lepers & Rogelio Mercado, 2025. "Taming the “Capital Flows-Credit Nexus”: A Sectoral Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 373-429, April.
    6. Temesvary, Judit & Wei, Andrew, 2024. "Domestic lending and the pandemic: How does banks’ exposure to COVID-19 abroad affect their lending in the United States?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    7. Bednarek, Peter & Franke, Günter, 2024. "Dynamics of probabilities of default," Discussion Papers 32/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Bednarek, Peter & Dinger, Valeriya & te Kaat, Daniel Marcel & von Westernhagen, Natalja, 2020. "Central bank funding and credit risk-taking," Discussion Papers 36/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Stefano Colonnello & Roberto Marfè & Qizhou Xiong, 2021. "Housing Yields," Working Papers 2021:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2021.
    10. Brunetti, Celso & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Mankad, Shawn, 2022. "The urgency to borrow in the interbank market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    11. Eiblmeier, Sebastian, 2025. "The Post-2015 German Lending Surge: What Role for QE?," MPRA Paper 126431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Doerr, Sebastian, 2018. "Collateral, Reallocation, and Aggregate Productivity: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Boom," MPRA Paper 106163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Maria Chiara Cavalleri & Boris Cournède & Volker Ziemann, 2019. "Housing markets and macroeconomic risks," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1555, OECD Publishing.
    14. Daniel Carvalho, 2021. "Revisiting the relationship between cross‐border capital flows and credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 179-218, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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