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Anticipation of future consumption: a monetary perspective

  • Faria, Joao Ricardo
  • McAdam, Peter

We adapt the (Sidrauski, 1967) monetary model to study the hypothesis of anticipation of future consumption. We assume that anticipation of future consumption affects an agent's instantaneous utility and that all effects of future consumption on current wellbeing are captured by the stock of future consumption. Monetary policy effectiveness is thereby reduced and a zero nominal lower interest rate (and thus the Friedman Rule) is destabilizing. Given this, we can derive a "just stable" equilibrium nominal interest rate with matching definitions for inflation and monetary growth. We demonstrate that these implied lower bounds match their historical analogues well. JEL Classification: E41, D91, O42

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1448.

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Date of creation: Jul 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121448
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  1. Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph, 2012. "Probability models and robust policy rules," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 246-262.
  2. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2001. "Psychological Expected Utility Theory And Anticipatory Feelings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(1), pages 55-79, February.
  3. Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
  4. Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph G., 2007. "Quantifying and sustaining welfare gains from monetary commitment," Working Paper Series 0709, European Central Bank.
  5. Steven Haider & Melvin Stephens Jr., 2004. "Is There a Retirement-Consumption Puzzle? Evidence Using Subjective Retirement Expectations," NBER Working Papers 10257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Yip, C.K. & Wang, P., 1989. "Alternative Approaches To Money And Growth," Papers 8-89-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
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  8. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 2011. "Macroeconomic Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195387711, March.
  9. Feenstra, Robert C., 1986. "Functional equivalence between liquidity costs and the utility of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 271-291, March.
  10. Loewenstein, George, 1987. "Anticipation and the Valuation of Delayed Consumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 666-84, September.
  11. Botond Koszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2005. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000341, UCLA Department of Economics.
  12. Willman, Alpo, 2007. "Sequential optimization, front-loaded information, and U.S. consumption," Working Paper Series 0765, European Central Bank.
  13. Brahima Coulibaly & Geng Li, 2006. "Do Homeowners Increase Consumption after the Last Mortgage Payment? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 10-19, February.
  14. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Equilibrium in a Pure Currency Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 203-20, April.
  15. Fischer, Stanley, 1979. "Capital Accumulation on the Transition Path in a Monetary Optimizing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1433-39, November.
  16. Carl E. Walsh, 2010. "Monetary Theory and Policy, Third Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262013770, June.
  17. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
  18. Richard Dusansky & Çağatay Koç, 2009. "Demand for cash balances in a cashless economy," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(3), pages 301-313.
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