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Anticipated Consumption and its Impact on Capital Accumulation and Growth: 'Forward-Looking' vs. 'Backward-Looking' Consumption Reference

  • Goncalo Monteiro
  • Stephen Turnovsky

It has long been argued that the anticipations of some future event will impact current consumption and well-being in advance of the occurrence of the event itself. This paper introduces this idea of anticipated pleasure into the Ramsey growth model, by assuming that in addition to his own current consumption, an agent’s current utility depends upon a reference consumption level that is based on expected future consumption. Two alternative specifications of the anticipated future consumption levels are considered: an external index and an internal index. We analyze the macrodynamic equilibrium, comparing it to both the standard Ramsey model, and the more familiar parallel model of habit formation. We establish a number of theoretical propositions characterizing the impact of the anticipated consumption reference on the transitional dynamics and long-run equilibrium, supplementing these with extensive numerical simulations.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 4536.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4536
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  1. Matthew Rabin, 2006. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 121(4), pages 1133-1165, November.
  2. Phillip A. Braun & George M. Constantinides & Wayne E. Ferson, 1992. "Time Nonseparability in Aggregate Consumption: International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Wayne E. Ferson & George M. Constantinides, 1991. "Habit Persistence and Durability in Aggregate Consumption: Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 3631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jody Overland & Christopher D. Carroll & David N. Weil, 2000. "Saving and Growth with Habit Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 341-355, June.
  5. peter mcadam & Jocka Faria, 2012. "Anticipation of Future Consumption: A Monetary Perspective," EcoMod2012 3982, EcoMod.
  6. Alonso-Carrera, Jaime & Caballe, Jordi & Raurich, Xavier, 2005. "Growth, habit formation, and catching-up with the Joneses," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1665-1691, August.
  7. Stephen J Turnovsky & Goncalo Monteiro, . "Consumption Externalities, Production Externalities and Efficient Capital Accumulation under Time Non-separable Preferences," Discussion Papers 05/08, Department of Economics, University of York.
  8. Christopher D. Carroll & Jody Overland & David N. Weil, 1997. "Comparison Utility in a Growth Model," NBER Working Papers 6138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Botond Koszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2007. "Reference-Dependent Risk Attitudes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1047-1073, September.
  10. Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Keeping Up with the Joneses: Consumption Externalities, Portfolio Choice, and Asset Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 1-8, February.
  11. Liu, Wen-Fang & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2005. "Consumption externalities, production externalities, and long-run macroeconomic efficiency," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(5-6), pages 1097-1129, June.
  12. Francisco Alvarez & Goncalo Monteiro, 2003. "Habit Formation, Catching up with the Joneses, and Non-Scale Growth," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 289, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June.
  14. Abel, A.B., 1990. "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation And Catching Up With The Joneses," Weiss Center Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  15. Boyer, M., 1976. "A Habit Forming Optimal Grouwth Model," Cahiers de recherche 7612, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  16. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-43, June.
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  19. Osborn, Denise R, 1988. "Seasonality and Habit Persistence in a Life Cycle Model of Consumptio n," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 255-66, October-D.
  20. Loewenstein, George, 1987. "Anticipation and the Valuation of Delayed Consumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 666-84, September.
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  22. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2001. "Psychological Expected Utility Theory And Anticipatory Feelings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(1), pages 55-79, February.
  23. Kandel, Shmuel & Kuznitz, Arik, 2004. "A Portfolio Choice Model with Utility from Anticipation of Future Consumption and Stock Markets' Mean Reversion," CEPR Discussion Papers 4701, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Bill Dupor & Wen-Fang Liu, 2003. "Jealousy and Equilibrium Overconsumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 423-428, March.
  25. Léonard,Daniel & Long,Ngo van, 1992. "Optimal Control Theory and Static Optimization in Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521331586.
  26. Mansoorian, Arman, 1998. "Habits and durability in consumption, and the dynamics of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 69-82, February.
  27. Kamien, Morton I. & Schwartz, Nancy L., 1971. "Sufficient conditions in optimal control theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 207-214, June.
  28. Harald Uhlig & Lars Ljungqvist, 2000. "Tax Policy and Aggregate Demand Management under Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 356-366, June.
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