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Anticipated Consumption and its Impact on Capital Accumulation and Growth: 'Forward-Looking' vs. 'Backward-Looking' Consumption Reference

  • Goncalo Monteiro
  • Stephen Turnovsky

It has long been argued that the anticipations of some future event will impact current consumption and well-being in advance of the occurrence of the event itself. This paper introduces this idea of anticipated pleasure into the Ramsey growth model, by assuming that in addition to his own current consumption, an agent’s current utility depends upon a reference consumption level that is based on expected future consumption. Two alternative specifications of the anticipated future consumption levels are considered: an external index and an internal index. We analyze the macrodynamic equilibrium, comparing it to both the standard Ramsey model, and the more familiar parallel model of habit formation. We establish a number of theoretical propositions characterizing the impact of the anticipated consumption reference on the transitional dynamics and long-run equilibrium, supplementing these with extensive numerical simulations.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 4536.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4536
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  4. Stephen J Turnovsky & Goncalo Monteiro, . "Consumption Externalities, Production Externalities and Efficient Capital Accumulation under Time Non-separable Preferences," Discussion Papers 05/08, Department of Economics, University of York.
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  10. Boyer, M., 1976. "A Habit Forming Optimal Grouwth Model," Cahiers de recherche 7612, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  12. Loewenstein, George, 1987. "Anticipation and the Valuation of Delayed Consumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 666-84, September.
  13. Kuznitz, Arik & Kandel, Shmuel & Fos, Vyacheslav, 2008. "A portfolio choice model with utility from anticipation of future consumption and stock market mean reversion," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1338-1352, November.
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  25. Mansoorian, Arman, 1998. "Habits and durability in consumption, and the dynamics of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 69-82, February.
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  27. Karen E. Dynan, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumer Preferences: Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 391-406, June.
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