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Beyond macro variables: consumer confidence index and household expenditure in Hungary

Author

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  • Gabor Vadas

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

One of the most important aspects of consumer surveys is the computation of the consumer confidence index, which aims to provide accurate figures on the financial position and outlook of households as well as their intention concerning future consumption and savings. . Although the motion of the consumer confidence index is of interest to both policymakers and economic forecasters, it is not obvious whether the sub-questions included in the surveys and the published composite index derived from such questions can measure exactly what survey makers are curious to know. In this study we examine the properties and forecasting capability of the Hungarian consumer confidence index published by GKI Economic Research Plc. We argue that some questions are unable to measure what they theoretically should. However, others are useful in forecasting the consumption expenditure of Hungarian households. Our results suggest that, in addition to macro variables, the consumer confidence index contains information over and above macro variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabor Vadas, 2005. "Beyond macro variables: consumer confidence index and household expenditure in Hungary," Microeconomics 0512006, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpmi:0512006
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 18
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    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mic/papers/0512/0512006.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Gergely Kiss & Gábor Vadas, 2005. "The Role of the Housing Market in Monetary Transmission," MNB Background Studies (discontinued) 2005/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    2. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer confidence index; consumption; forecast;

    JEL classification:

    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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