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Das hohe Risiko von Fremdwaehrungsanleihen

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  • Maik Grabau
  • Heike Joebges

Abstract

Haeufig wird angenommen, Deutschland und andere von demographischen Problemen betroffene Industrieländer koennten Finanzierungsprobleme der Rentenversicherung durch eine staerkere Kapitaldeckung inklusive Anlage dieses Kapitals im Ausland abmildern. Neben der Annahme, dass die Rendite bei Kapitaldeckung höher ist als im Umlageverfahren, wird unterstellt, dass Finanzanlagen in Ländern mit "besserer" Bevölkerungsentwicklung zu höherer Rendite und damit auch höheren Renten führen. Ziel der Arbeit ist es zu zeigen, dass Empfehlungen für verstärkte Auslandsanlagen die damit verbundenen Risiken unterschätzen - selbst wenn so risikoarme Finanzprodukte wie Staatsanleihen betrachtet werden. Aufgrund des Wechselkursrisikos verlieren die höheren Renditen ausländischer Staatsanleihen deutlich an Attraktivität- und zwar selbst dann, wenn die Analyse auf den Zeitraum vor der Finanzkrise beschränkt bleibt. Bezieht man zusätzlich die Finanzkrisenfolgen ein, lässt sich auch für Anlagen in Euro ein hohes Risiko gerade der bis zur Finanzkrise stärker wachsenden Euroraumländer konstatieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Maik Grabau & Heike Joebges, 2012. "Das hohe Risiko von Fremdwaehrungsanleihen," IMK Working Paper 92-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:92-2012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicholas Barr & Peter Diamond, 2006. "The Economics of Pensions," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 22(1), pages 15-39, Spring.
    2. Döring, Diether & Buth, Rainer & Rosengart, Anja Helena, 2007. "Bedroht die künftige demographische Entwicklung die Vermögenswerte kapitalgedeckter Altersversorgungssysteme? Auswertung des Standes der internationalen Forschung," Arbeitspapiere 128, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf.
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    Cited by:

    1. Heike Joebges & Volker Meinhard & Katja Rietzler & Rudolf Zwiener, 2012. "On the Path to Old-Age Poverty - Assessing the Impact of the Funded Riester Pension," IMK Report 73e-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Heike Joebges & Volker Meinhard & Katja Rietzler & Rudolf Zwiener, 2012. "Auf dem Weg in die Altersarmut - Bilanz der Einführung der kapitalgedeckten Riester-Rente," IMK Report 73-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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