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The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Future Pensions of the Peruvian Pension System

Author

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  • Olivera, Javier
  • Valderrama, José A.

Abstract

We study the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the pension policy response on the private and public pension systems of Peru. We find that the policies allowing early withdrawals from the private pension balances imply a significant reduction in expected pension wealth by about 40 people, yet there are important heterogeneous effects: the losses are larger for males, for affiliates at the bottom of the distribution of income or pension wealth, and for older people as they have less time to rebuild their pension pots. We detect that the excess of mortality due to the pandemic will reduce the actuarial net liability of the public pension system by about 2.4 percent, even after accounting for new survival pensions and a drop in contributions. The effect is largely driven by savings due to the anticipated deaths of pensioners. Moreover, a new set of reduced pension benefits implemented in the public pension system during the pandemic could cost about 4 percent of the actuarial net reserve.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivera, Javier & Valderrama, José A., 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Future Pensions of the Peruvian Pension System," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12492, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:12492
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004533
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicholas Barr & Peter Diamond, 2006. "The Economics of Pensions," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 22(1), pages 15-39, Spring.
    2. Miguel Lorca, 2021. "Effects of COVID‐19 early release of pension funds: The case of Chile," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(4), pages 903-936, December.
    3. OECD & Inter-American Development Bank & World Bank Group, 2014. "Pensions at a Glance : Latin America and the Caribbean," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 21426, April.
    4. Bernal, Noelia & Olivera, Javier, 2020. "Choice of pension management fees and effects on pension wealth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 539-568.
    5. Christoph Freudenberg & Mr. Frederik G Toscani, 2019. "Informality and the Challenge of Pension Adequacy: Outlook and Reform Options for Peru," IMF Working Papers 2019/149, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Tomás Serebrisky & Verónica Frisancho & Jonathan Karver & Andrew Powell & Diego Margot & Ancor Suárez-Alemán & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Matías Marzani & Solange Berstein & Marian, 2016. "Saving for Development: How Latin America and the Caribbean Can Save More and Better," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 94597 edited by Eduardo A. Cavallo & Tomás Serebrisky, February.
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    8. Weller, Jürgen, 2020. "La pandemia del COVID-19 y su efecto en las tendencias de los mercados laborales," Documentos de Proyectos 45759, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    9. repec:idb:brikps:7677 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Madeira, Carlos, 2022. "The impact of the Chilean pension withdrawals during the Covid pandemic on the future savings rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Madeira, 2024. "The effect of Covid pension withdrawals and the Universal Guaranteed Pension on the income of future retirees in Chile," BIS Working Papers 1176, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Madeira, Carlos, 2024. "The effect of the Covid pension withdrawals and the Universal Guaranteed Pension on the income of the future retirees and its fiscal costs," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(3).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions

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