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Rentabilitätsvergleiche im Umlage- und Kapitaldeckungsverfahren : Konzepte, empirische Ergebnisse, sozialpolitische Konsequenzen

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  • Börsch-Supan, Axel

Abstract

Die demographischen Veränderungen sind Auslöser einer grundsätzlicheren Debatte über Alterssicherungsverfahren, nämlich der Wahl eines effizienten Finanzierungsverfahrens der Altersvorsorge. Im Zentrum der Debatte steht immer wieder der Renditevergleich zwischen dem Umlage- und dem Kapitaldeckungsverfahren. Ihm gilt dieses Papier. Er ist keineswegs so einfach, wie es oft suggeriert wird, da Versicherungs- und Risikoaspekte, vor allem aber das Übergangsproblem berücksichtigt werden müssen. Der vorliegende Beitrag stellt den wirtschaftstheoretischen Hintergrund mit den wichtigsten relevanten Konzepten dar und präsentiert empirische Schätzungen zur heutigen und Simulationsergebnisse zur zukünftigen Entwicklung der relevanten Renditen. Wir schließen mit den sozialpolitischen Konsequenzen für eine reformierte Altersvorsorge.

Suggested Citation

  • Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2000. "Rentabilitätsvergleiche im Umlage- und Kapitaldeckungsverfahren : Konzepte, empirische Ergebnisse, sozialpolitische Konsequenzen," Discussion Papers 585, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
  • Handle: RePEc:mnh:vpaper:1026
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    File URL: https://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/1026/1/585.pdf
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    1. Sikandar Siddiqui, 1997. "The pension incentive to retire: Empirical evidence for West Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 10(4), pages 463-486.
    2. Brunner, Johann K., 1996. "Transition from a pay-as-you-go to a fully funded pension system: The case of differing individuals and intragenerational fairness," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 131-146, April.
    3. Brunner, Johann K., 1993. "Redistribution and the efficiency of the pay-as-you-go pension system," Discussion Papers, Series I 265, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
    4. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    5. Homburg, Stefan, 1988. "Theorie der Alterssicherung," EconStor Books, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, number 92902.
    6. Martin Feldstein & Andrew Samwick, 1998. "The Transition Path in Privatizing Social Security," NBER Chapters,in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 215-264 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1998. "Simulating the Privatization of Social Security in General Equilibrium," NBER Chapters,in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 265-311 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Borsch-Supan, Axel & Schnabel, Reinhold, 1998. "Social Security and Declining Labor-Force Participation in Germany," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 173-178, May.
    9. Richard Disney, 1996. "Can We Afford to Grow Older?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026204157x, January.
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