IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ove/journl/aid10414.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of aging on regional employment: Linking spatial econometrics and population projections for a scenario analysis of future labor market outcomes in Nordic regions

Author

Listed:
  • Torben Dall Schmidt
  • Aki Kangasharju
  • Timo Mitze
  • Daniel Rauhut

Abstract

Ageing is a key challenge for many countries. The purpose of this paper is to simulate how ageing affects future regional labour market outcomes. We develop a simulation procedure based on data for 71 Nordic regions in Finland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark. The procedure combines spatial econometrics and population projections for scenario analyses of future employment patterns up to 2021. Compared to a “benchmark scenario†based on projections of the working age population, we find that predicted regional labour market outcomes tell a much richer story if a combination of estimation results and population projections is used. To this end, our results can be helpful for economic policymaking, which is constantly in need of accurate regional labor market forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Torben Dall Schmidt & Aki Kangasharju & Timo Mitze & Daniel Rauhut, 2014. "The impact of aging on regional employment: Linking spatial econometrics and population projections for a scenario analysis of future labor market outcomes in Nordic regions," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 232-246.
  • Handle: RePEc:ove:journl:aid:10414
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.unioviedo.es/reunido/index.php/EBL/article/view/10414
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64, pages 416-416.
    2. Blien, Uwe & Suedekum, Jens & Wolf, Katja, 2006. "Local employment growth in West Germany: A dynamic panel approach," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 445-458, August.
    3. Axel Boersch-Supan, 2001. "Labor Market Effects of Population Aging," NBER Working Papers 8640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jean-Michel Josselin & Yvon Rocaboy & Christophe Tavéra, 2009. "The influence of population size on the relevance of demand or supply models for local public goods: Evidence from France," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(3), pages 563-574, August.
    5. Badi H. Baltagi & Bernard Fingleton & Alain Pirotte, 2014. "Estimating and Forecasting with a Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(1), pages 112-138, February.
    6. Michael Beenstock & Daniel Felsenstein, 2007. "Spatial Vector Autoregressions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 167-196.
    7. Thomas Nechyba, 1996. "Fiscal federalism and local public finance: A computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 3(2), pages 215-231, May.
    8. Peter Sandholt Jensen & Torben Dall Schmidt, 2011. "Testing for Cross-sectional Dependence in Regional Panel Data," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 423-450, July.
    9. J. Elhorst, 2012. "Dynamic spatial panels: models, methods, and inferences," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 5-28, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ove:journl:aid:10414. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francisco J. Delgado). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/deovies.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.