IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/decono/v160y2012i1p59-80.html

Will Ageing Lead to a Higher Real Exchange Rate for the Netherlands?

Author

Listed:
  • Casper Ewijk

  • Maikel Volkerink

Abstract

Long-term projections for the Netherlands indicate that demand for nontradables – e.g. health care services – will increase relative to supply due to population ageing. If this leads to higher future real exchanges rates this will erode the return of the savings currently made to prepare for ageing. This paper explores the magnitude of potential price effects using a modified version of the ‘two country, four commodity framework’ developed by Obstfeld and Rogoff (2005) to explore the exchange rate effects of the balance of payments reversal in the US. When these price effects are substantial, this may have serious consequences for policies to enhance national saving in the Netherlands.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Casper Ewijk & Maikel Volkerink, 2012. "Will Ageing Lead to a Higher Real Exchange Rate for the Netherlands?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 59-80, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:160:y:2012:i:1:p:59-80
    DOI: 10.1007/s10645-011-9182-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10645-011-9182-5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10645-011-9182-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Axel Boersch-Supan, 2001. "Labor Market Effects of Population Aging," NBER Working Papers 8640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Leon Bettendorf & A. Horst & N. Draper & C. Ewijk & R. Mooij & H. Rele, 2011. "Ageing and the Conflict of Interest Between Generations," De Economist, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 257-278, September.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "The unsustainable U.S. current account position revisited," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
    6. Iscan Talan, 2010. "How Much Can Engel's Law and Baumol's Disease Explain the Rise of Service Employment in the United States?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-43, September.
    7. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
    8. Baldwin, Richard & Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric, 2014. "Trade-in-goods and trade-in-tasks: An integrating framework," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 51-62.
    9. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
    10. Bart Hobijn & David Lagakos, 2003. "Social security and the consumer price index for the elderly," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(May).
    11. Donghoon Lee & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2006. "Intersectoral Labor Mobility and the Growth of the Service Sector," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 1-46, January.
    12. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "The unsustainable U.S. current account position revisited," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Michiel Evers & Ruud Mooij & Daniel Vuuren, 2008. "The Wage Elasticity of Labour Supply: A Synthesis of Empirical Estimates," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 25-43, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kethaka Galappaththi & Ruwan Jayathilaka & Lochana Rajamanthri & Thaveesha Jayawardhana & Sachini Anuththara & Thamasha Nimnadi & Ridhmi Karadanaarachchi, 2023. "Economy and elderly population, complementary or contradictory: A cross-continental wavelet coherence and cross-country Granger causality study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, January.
    2. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of population ageing on economic growth: an in-depth bibliometric analysis," FEP Working Papers 505, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    3. Igor Fedotenkov, 2014. "Pension Reform, Factor Mobility and Trade with Country-Specific Goods," De Economist, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 247-262, September.
    4. Beissinger, Thomas & Hellier, Joël & Marczak, Martyna, 2020. "Divergence in Labour Force Growth: Should Wages and Prices Grow Faster in Germany?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 620, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Barbiellini Amidei, Federico & Gomellini, Matteo & Piselli, Paolo, 2019. "The price of demography," MPRA Paper 94435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Max Groneck & Christoph Kaufmann, 2014. "Relative Sectoral Prices and Population Ageing: A Common Trend," Working Paper Series in Economics 69, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    7. Max Groneck & Christoph Kaufmann, 2017. "Determinants of Relative Sectoral Prices: The Role of Demographic Change," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(3), pages 319-347, June.
    8. Fedotenkov, Igor, 2015. "International Trade and Migration: Why Do Migrants Choose Small Countries?," MPRA Paper 66035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Igor Fedotenkov & Irena Mikolajun, 2013. "Migration and Welfare," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(1), pages 71-73, February.
    10. Thomas Beissinger & Joël Hellier & Martyna Marczak, 2025. "Divergence in Labour Force Growth in Open Economies: Should Wages and Prices Grow Faster in Germany?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 67(4), pages 949-988, December.
    11. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A. C. Teixeira & Sandra Silva, 2017. "The Impact Of Population Ageing On Economic Growth: A Bibliometric Survey," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 275-296, June.
    12. Vaittinen, Risto & Vanne, Reijo, 2020. "Finland’s slow recovery from the financial crisis: A demographic explanation," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    13. Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan & Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Khanam, Rasheda, 2020. "The relation between an ageing population and economic growth in Bangladesh: Evidence from an endogenous growth model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 14-25.
    14. Fedotenkov, I., 2012. "Pensions and ageing in a globalizing world. International spillover effects via trade and factor mobility," Other publications TiSEM 8830bc21-4138-4479-8459-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oberpriller, Christian M., 2007. "Global current account imbalances and exchange rate adjustment: the role of oil suppliers," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 442, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    2. Juha Tervala, 2007. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account in a Small Open Economy," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 108-120, Autumn.
    3. Dong, Wei, 2012. "The role of expenditure switching in the global imbalance adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 237-251.
    4. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    5. Paul Luk & David Vines, 2014. "Debt Deleveraging and the Zero Bound: Potentially Perverse Effects of Real Exchange Rate Movements," Working Papers 202014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    6. Stefan Hohberger & Lukas Vogel & Bernhard Herz, 2014. "Budgetary-Neutral Fiscal Policy Rules and External Adjustment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 909-936, November.
    7. Min Lu, 2012. "Current account dynamics and optimal monetary policy in a two-country economy," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(3), pages 299-324.
    8. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Romei, Federica, 2014. "Debt deleveraging and the exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 1-16.
    9. Philipp Engler & Michael Fidora & Christian Thimann, 2009. "External Imbalances and the US Current Account: How Supply‐Side Changes Affect an Exchange Rate Adjustment," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 927-941, November.
    10. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Commentary: the surprising origin and nature of financial crises: a macroeconomic policy proposal," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 69-74.
    11. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 2006. "The U.S. current account deficit and the expected share of world output," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    12. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "Productivity, External Balance, and Exchange Rates: Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism among G7 Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 117-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Brahima Coulibaly & Jonathan N. Millar, 2008. "The Asian financial crisis, uphill flow of capital, and global imbalances: evidence from a micro study," International Finance Discussion Papers 942, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Giancarlo Corsetti & Philippe Martin & Paolo Pesenti, 2008. "Varieties and the Transfer Problem: The Extensive Margin of Current Account Adjustment," RSCAS Working Papers 2008/01, European University Institute.
    15. Bergant, Katharina, 2021. "The role of stock-flow adjustment during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    16. Marques, Luis B, 2007. "Welfare Implications of Exchange Rate Changes," MPRA Paper 5721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Choi, Horag & Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2008. "Endogenous discounting, the world saving glut and the U.S. current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 30-53, May.
    18. Povoledo, Laura, 2018. "Pricing behavior and the role of trade openness in the transmission of monetary shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 231-247.
    19. Agustín Bénétrix & Philip Lane, 2010. "Fiscal Shocks and The Sectoral Composition of Output," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 335-350, July.
    20. Michael G Arghyrou & Georgios Chortareas, 2007. "Real exchange rates and current account imbalances in the Euro-area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 124, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:160:y:2012:i:1:p:59-80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.