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Will Ageing Lead to a Higher Real Exchange Rate for the Netherlands?

  • Casper Ewijk


  • Maikel Volkerink


Long-term projections for the Netherlands indicate that demand for nontradables – e.g. health care services – will increase relative to supply due to population ageing. If this leads to higher future real exchanges rates this will erode the return of the savings currently made to prepare for ageing. This paper explores the magnitude of potential price effects using a modified version of the ‘two country, four commodity framework’ developed by Obstfeld and Rogoff (2005) to explore the exchange rate effects of the balance of payments reversal in the US. When these price effects are substantial, this may have serious consequences for policies to enhance national saving in the Netherlands.

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Article provided by Springer in its journal De Economist.

Volume (Year): 160 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 59-80

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Handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:160:y:2012:i:1:p:59-80
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  1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
  2. Iscan Talan, 2010. "How Much Can Engel's Law and Baumol's Disease Explain the Rise of Service Employment in the United States?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-43, September.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2004. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Working Papers 10869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Axel Boersch-Supan, 2001. "Labor Market Effects of Population Aging," NBER Working Papers 8640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart, 1991. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence From Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 91/100, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Kenneth Rogoff & William Brainard & George Perry, . "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Working Paper 33687, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  7. Baldwin, Richard & Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric, 2010. "Trade-in-goods and trade-in-tasks: An Integrating Framework," CEPR Discussion Papers 7775, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
  9. Leon Bettendorf & A. Horst & N. Draper & C. Ewijk & R. Mooij & H. Rele, 2011. "Ageing and the Conflict of Interest Between Generations," De Economist, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 257-278, September.
  10. Donghoon Lee & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2004. "Intersectoral Labor Mobility and the Growth of the Service Sector," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-036, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  11. Bart Hobijn & David Lagakos, 2003. "Social security and the consumer price index for the elderly," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(May).
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