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The Impact of Demography on the Real Exchange Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Andersson, Andreas

    (Department of Economics)

  • Österholm, Pär

    () (Department of Economics)

Abstract

Theory predicts that life cycle saving mechanisms will cause real exchange rate variations as the age structure varies. We investigate the impact of demography on the Swedish real exchange rate, measured as the real TCW index, during 1960 to 2000. Time series regressions show that the Swedish demographic structure has significant explanatory power on the real exchange rate. A model using age shares alone as regressors is used for medium term out-of-sample forecasts, outperforming both a naive forecast and forecasts based on an autoregressive model. Finally we use the estimated model in order to make forecasts of the Swedish real exchange rate up to 2015. The model predicts that the Swedish age structure will have a depreciating effect on the real exchange rate up to 2007 followed by an appreciating effect in the end of the forecasting period.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersson, Andreas & Österholm, Pär, 2001. "The Impact of Demography on the Real Exchange Rate," Working Paper Series 2001:11, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2001_011
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Österholm, Pär, 2004. "Estimating the Relationship between Age Structure and GDP in the OECD Using Panel Cointegration Methods," Working Paper Series 2004:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    2. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2002. "Swedish post-war economic development. The role of age structure in a welfare state," Arbetsrapport 2003:4, Institute for Futures Studies.
    3. Lindblad, Hans & Sellin, Peter, 2003. "The Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment and the Real Exchange Rate: An Unobserved Components System Approach," Working Paper Series 152, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    4. Leon Bettendorf & Hans Dewachter, 2007. "Ageing and the Relative Price of Nontradeables," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-064/2, Tinbergen Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demography; Real exchange rate; Forecasts;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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