Forecasting real exchange rate trends using age structure data - the case of Sweden
Theory predicts that life cycle saving and consumption behaviour could cause real exchange rate variations as the age structure varies. Time series regressions show that the Swedish demographic structure has significant explanatory power on the real exchange rate during 1960 to 2002. A model using age shares as regressors is used for medium-term out-of-sample forecasts, which perform well both compared to naive forecasts and forecasts based on an autoregressive model.
Volume (Year): 12 (2005)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEL20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ray C. Fair & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1987.
"Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations,"
NBER Working Papers
2280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fair, Ray C & Dominguez, Kathryn M, 1991. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1276-94, December.
- Ray C. Fair & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1987. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 839, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- McMillan, Henry M. & Baesel, Jerome B., 1990. "The macroeconomic impact of the baby boom generation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 167-195.
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 1997.
"The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the Post-Bretton Woods Period,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1730, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
- Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor & Zoega, Gylfi, 1999. "Trade surpluses and life-cycle saving behaviour," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 227-237, November.
- Matthew Higgins & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1996. "Asian Demography and Foreign Capital Dependence," NBER Working Papers 5560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Lindh, Thomas, 1999.
"Medium-Term Forecasts of Potential GDP and Inflation Using Age Structure Information,"
Working Paper Series
99, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Thomas Lindh, 2004. "Medium-term forecasts of potential GDP and inflation using age structure information," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 19-49.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Jorion, Philippe & Sweeney, Richard J., 1996. "Mean reversion in real exchange rates: evidence and implications for forecasting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 535-550, August.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521634809 is not listed on IDEAS
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:12:y:2005:i:5:p:267-272. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.