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Demographic change and economic growth in Sweden: 1750-2050

Author

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  • DE LA CROIX, David
  • LINDH, Thomas
  • MALMBERG, Bo

Abstract

This paper addresses two issues. To what extent can models estimated on modern data be used to account for growth patterns in the past? Can information on historical patterns help to improve long-term forecasting of economic growth? We consider a reduced-form statistical model based on the demographic dividend literature. Assuming that there is a common DGP guiding growth through the demographic transition, we use an estimate from post-war global data to backcast the Swedish historical GDP growth. The results indicate that the assumption of a common DGP can be warranted, at least back to 1870. Given the stability of the relationship between population and growth, we use the model to forecast income for the next 50 years. We compare our approach to a previous attempt to simulate the long-term Swedish growth path with an endogenous growth model. Encompassing tests show that each of the models contains independent information on the Swedish growth path, suggesting that there is a benefit from combining them for long-term forecasting.
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Suggested Citation

  • DE LA CROIX, David & LINDH, Thomas & MALMBERG, Bo, 2009. "Demographic change and economic growth in Sweden: 1750-2050," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2104, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvrp:2104
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2007.08.014
    Note: In : Journal of Macroeconomics, 31, 132-148, 2009
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    Cited by:

    1. David E. Bloom, 2011. "Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 6511, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    2. Nishimura, Yukihiro & Pestieau, Pierre & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2018. "Education choices, longevity and optimal policy in a Ben-Porath economy," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 65-81.
    3. Cohen, Daniel & Leker, Laura, 2014. "Health and Education: Another Look with the Proper Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 9940, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. David de la Croix, 2010. "Adult Longevity and Economic Take-off from Malthus to Ben-Porath," Chapters, in: Neri Salvadori (ed.), Institutional and Social Dynamics of Growth and Distribution, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Gregory Ponthiere, 2011. "Asymptotic Age Structures And Intergenerational Trade," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 175-217, February.
    6. Cohen, D. & Leker, L., 2016. "Testing the Ben-Porath effect through the educational patterns of young cohorts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 252-262.
    7. Joel Alejandro Rosado & Mar a Isabel Alvarado S nchez, 2017. "From Population Age Structure and Savings Rate to Economic Growth: Evidence from Ecuador," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 352-361.
    8. Laura Leker & Gregory Ponthiere, 2015. "Education, life expectancy and family bargaining: the Ben-Porath effect revisited," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 481-513, August.
    9. Dieu Thanh Le & Hail Park, 2019. "The Impact Of Demographic Change On Economic Growth," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 471-484, August.
    10. Ilya Kashnitsky & Joop De Beer & Leo Van Wissen, 2020. "Economic Convergence In Ageing Europe," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 111(1), pages 28-44, February.
    11. Ponthiere, Gregory, 2024. "Higher Education Subsidies and the Universal Insurance against a Short Life," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1528, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    12. Bo Malmberg, 2010. "Low Fertility and the Housing Market: Evidence from Swedish Regional Data [Basse Fécondité et Marché du Logement: Une Analyse de Données Régionales Suédoises]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 229-244, May.
    13. Stefan Rayer & Stanley Smith, 2014. "Population Projections by Age for Florida and its Counties: Assessing Accuracy and the Impact of Adjustments," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 33(5), pages 747-770, October.
    14. Andrea Kunnert & Oliver Fritz & Dieter Pennerstorfer & Gerhard Streicher & Birgit Aigner & Thomas Döring, 2010. "Teilbericht 3: Alterung und regionale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 41128, June.
    15. Robert TAMURA & David CUBERES, 2020. "Equilibrium and A-efficient Fertility with Increasing Returns to Population and Endogenous Mortality," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 157-182, June.
    16. Torben Schubert & Martin Andersson, 2015. "Old is gold? The effects of employee age on innovation and the moderating effects of employment turnover," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1-2), pages 95-113, March.
    17. repec:osf:osfxxx:uy8dn_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Uddin, Gazi A. & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2016. "Population age structure and savings rate impacts on economic growth: Evidence from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 23-33.

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