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Teilbericht 3: Alterung und regionale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Kunnert

    (WIFO)

  • Oliver Fritz
  • Dieter Pennerstorfer

    (Austrian Institute of Economic Research)

  • Gerhard Streicher
  • Birgit Aigner
  • Thomas Döring

    (Carinthia University of Applied Sciences)

Abstract

Für eine Beurteilung der ökonomischen Wirkungen der Alterung ist zentral, wie sich der demographische Wandel auf die Gesamtwirtschaft auswirkt. Konkret sind Effekte auf die Nachfrage und die Produktivität zu erwarten, die auch die nationale und regionale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit beeinflussen. In einem ersten Schritt wird gezeigt, dass für die österreichischen Bundesländer der Zusammenhang zwischen demographischem Wandel und Produktivität umgekehrt U-förmig verläuft: Jüngere und ältere Erwerbstätige weisen gegenüber der Alterskohorte der 35- bis 44-Jährigen einen Produktivitätsrückstand auf. Durch die zunehmende Alterung der Bevölkerung sind – mit Ausnahme Wiens – bis 2030 Produktivitätsverluste zu erwarten. Die private Konsumnachfrage wird sowohl in ihrem Niveau als auch in ihrer Struktur vom Alter des Haushaltsvorstands bestimmt. So ist aufgrund der Alterung der Bevölkerung bis 2030 mit einem Anstieg der Sparquote zu rechnen. Darüber hinaus werden die Ausgaben für Konsumgruppen wie Wohnung, Beheizung und Beleuchtung, Lebensmittel und alkoholfreie Getränke sowie Gesundheitsprodukte steigen, während die Verkehrsausgaben sinken dürften. Die mit Hilfe des multiregionalen ökonometrischen Input-Output-Modells MultiREG geschätzten gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte der demographischen Alterung sind sehr gering: Die Produktivitätsveränderung hat keinen Einfluss auf die Bruttowertschöpfung, erhöht jedoch das Beschäftigungsniveau etwas. Insgesamt wirkt die Strukturveränderung des privaten Konsums leicht positiv auf Bruttowertschöpfung und Beschäftigung, jene des öffentlichen Konsum (Zunahme der Gesundheitsausgaben) leicht negativ. Regionale Unterschiede ergeben sich vor allem durch die Effekte auf den privaten Konsum, da Wien aufgrund der angenommenen Kürzungen in der öffentlichen Verwaltung verliert.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Kunnert & Oliver Fritz & Dieter Pennerstorfer & Gerhard Streicher & Birgit Aigner & Thomas Döring, 2010. "Teilbericht 3: Alterung und regionale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 41128, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:41128
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