Fiscal Policy and Educational Attainment in the United States - A Generational Accounting Perspective
In this paper, we investigate the consequences of the rise in educational attainment on the US generational accounts. We build on the 1995 accounts of Gokhale and al. (1999) and disaggregate them per schooling level. We show that low skill newborns are characterized by a negative generational account (-15.4% of their lifetime labor income) whilst medium and high skill newborns have positive accounts (26.8% and 32.3% of their lifetime labor income). Compared to Gokhale et al., our baseline forecast is more optimistic. Nevertheless, the rise in educational attainment is not strong enough to restore the generational balance. The current fiscal policy generates a long-run deficit. Balancing the budget requires increasing taxes (by about 1.2%) or reducing transfers (by about 2.7%). These results are rather robust to growth and discounting assumptions as well as to the treatment of education spending. They are sensitive to assumptions about the schooling level of future generations.
|Date of creation:||10 Mar 2003|
|Date of revision:||18 Mar 2004|
|Note:||Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on PC; to print on A4; pages: 25 ; figures: included|
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- Philip Oreopoulos & Alan J. Auerbach, 1999. "Analyzing the Fiscal Impact of U.S. Immigration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 176-180, May.
- Robert Haveman, 1994. "Should Generational Accounts Replace Public Budgets and Deficits?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 95-111, Winter.
- M. Dolores Collado & Iñigo Iturbe Ormaetxe & Guadalupe Valera, 2002.
"Quantifying The Impact Of Immigration On The Spanish Welfare State,"
Working Papers. Serie AD
2002-04, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- M. Dolores Collado & IÒigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe & Guadalupe Valera, 2004. "Quantifying the Impact of Immigration on the Spanish Welfare State," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 335-353, 05.
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