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The Larger Europe: Technological Convergence and Labour Migration

Author

Listed:
  • Michel Aglietta

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Vladimir Borgy
  • Jean Chateau
  • Michel Juillard
  • Jacques Le Cacheux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

  • Gilles Le Garrec

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Vincent Touzé

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

We investigate the long-run growth of Europe in the world economy. The research covers the first half of the xxist century. The basic trends that will shape the growth regime in the global economy are the demographic transition and the diffusion of technological progress. We use the framework of ingenue, an olg model that divides the world in ten broad regions. Hypotheses are elaborated on the basic trends and discussed in an historical perspective. Structural changes are then introduced into ingenue to make prospective scenarios. A baseline scenario is built to outline the main macroeconomic features of the broad regions. This scenario being used as a benchmark is deliberately conservative as far as structural and institutional changes are concerned. It depicts Western Europe as an ageing low-growth region, accumulating net foreign assets and enjoying an appreciating real exchange rate. These are the characteristics of a permanent creditor in a world growth regime supported by capital mobility. The frontiers of Europe are investigated in the last part of the paper by means of two alternative scenarios. First it is assumed that eu enlargement accelerates the technological catch-up of Eastern Europe and boosts growth. Second labour mobility is simulated. Because the cost of financing public retirement is higher in Western Europe, a policy of immigration is implemented to eschew the decline of the labour force. Both the beneficial effects on Western Europe and the adverse effects on the regions of emigration are displayed.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Aglietta & Vladimir Borgy & Jean Chateau & Michel Juillard & Jacques Le Cacheux & Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2006. "The Larger Europe: Technological Convergence and Labour Migration," Post-Print hal-03384672, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03384672
    DOI: 10.3917/reco.574.0823
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03384672
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacques Le Cacheux, 2002. "Globalisation financière, vieillissement et convergence mondiale. Une exploration de quelques scénarios," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 47-101.
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    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    4. Modigliani, Franco, 1986. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 297-313, June.
    5. Equipe INGENUE, 2001. "Macroeconomic consequences of pension reforms in Europe: an investigation with the INGENUE world model," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0116, CEPREMAP.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
    8. Paul Beaudry & David A. Green, 2002. "Population Growth, Technological Adoption, and Economic Outcomes in the Information Era," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 749-774, October.
    9. Equipe INGENUE, 2001. "Macroeconomic consequences of pension reforms in Europe: an investigation with the INGENUE world model," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0116, CEPREMAP.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vladimir Borgy & Xavier Chojnicki, 2009. "Labor Migration: Macroeconomic and Demographic Outlook for Europe and Neighborhood Regions," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 119, pages 115-153.
    2. Vladimir Borgy & Xavier Chojnicki & Gilles Le Garrec & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2010. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Global Endogenous Migration: a General Equilibrium Analysis," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 97-98, pages 13-39.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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