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Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculations

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  • Robert W. Fogel

Abstract

While the economies of the fifteen countries that were in the European Union (EU15) in 2000 will continue to grow from now until 2040, they will not be able to match the surges in growth that will occur in South and East Asia. In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the output of the entire globe in the year 2000, despite the influence of several potential political and economic constraints. India's economy will also continue to grow, although significant constraints (both political and economic) will keep it from reaching China's levels. The projected decline of the EU15's global share of GDP means that liberal Asian nations will be poised to take up the role of promoting liberal democracy across the globe.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert W. Fogel, 2007. "Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculations," NBER Working Papers 13184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13184
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    1. Olivier Blanchard & Andrei Shleifer, 2001. "Federalism With and Without Political Centralization: China Versus Russia," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(4), pages 1-8.
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    3. Roy Bahl & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez, 2003. "Fiscal Federalism and Economic Reform in China," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0313, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2012. "The Great Shift : Macroeconomic projections For the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon," Working Papers hal-00962464, HAL.
    2. TN Srinivasan, 2013. "Trends and Impacts of Real and Financial Globalization in the People's Republic of China and India since the 1980s," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 30(1), pages 1-30, March.
    3. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, Winter/Sp.
    4. Fogel, Robert W., 2009. "Forecasting the cost of U.S. Health Care in 2040," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 482-488, July.
    5. Ramgopal Agarwala, 2008. "Towards An Asian “Bretton Woods†for Restructuring of the Regional Financial Architecture," Finance Working Papers 22079, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    6. Gunther Schnabl, 2019. "China’s overinvestment and international trade conflict," CESifo Working Paper Series 7642, CESifo.
    7. Guanghua Wan & Chen Wang & Xun Zhang, 2021. "The Poverty-Growth-Inequality Triangle: Asia 1960s to 2010s," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 795-822, February.
    8. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2010. "The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture," Working Papers 2010-27, CEPII research center.
    9. Gunther Schnabl, 2019. "China's Overinvestment and International Trade Conflicts," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 27(5), pages 37-62, September.
    10. Edsel L. Beja, 2008. "Estimating Trade Mis‐invoicing from China: 2000–2005," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(2), pages 82-92, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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