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Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculations

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  • Robert W. Fogel

Abstract

While the economies of the fifteen countries that were in the European Union (EU15) in 2000 will continue to grow from now until 2040, they will not be able to match the surges in growth that will occur in South and East Asia. In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the output of the entire globe in the year 2000, despite the influence of several potential political and economic constraints. India's economy will also continue to grow, although significant constraints (both political and economic) will keep it from reaching China's levels. The projected decline of the EU15's global share of GDP means that liberal Asian nations will be poised to take up the role of promoting liberal democracy across the globe.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert W. Fogel, 2007. "Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculations," NBER Working Papers 13184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13184
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Blanchard & Andrei Shleifer, 2001. "Federalism With and Without Political Centralization: China Versus Russia," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(4), pages 1-8.
    2. Sanat Kaul, 2006. "Higher Education in India: Seizing the Opportunity," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 179, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph McKinney, 2014. "The Changing Global Economy: Roles Of The United States And The European Union In The Evolving Context," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 57-68.
    2. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2012. "The Great Shift : Macroeconomic projections For the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon," Working Papers hal-00962464, HAL.
    3. TN Srinivasan, 2013. "Trends and Impacts of Real and Financial Globalization in the People's Republic of China and India since the 1980s," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 30(1), pages 1-30, March.
    4. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, Winter/Sp.
    5. José A. Tenreiro Machado & Maria Eugénia Mata & António M. Lopes, 2020. "Fractional Dynamics and Pseudo-Phase Space of Country Economic Processes," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, January.
    6. Fogel, Robert W., 2009. "Forecasting the cost of U.S. Health Care in 2040," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 482-488, July.
    7. Ramgopal Agarwala, 2008. "Towards An Asian “Bretton Woods†for Restructuring of the Regional Financial Architecture," Finance Working Papers 22079, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    8. Gunther Schnabl, 2019. "China's Overinvestment and International Trade Conflicts," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 27(5), pages 37-62, September.
    9. Guanghua Wan & Chen Wang & Xun Zhang, 2021. "The Poverty-Growth-Inequality Triangle: Asia 1960s to 2010s," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 795-822, February.
    10. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2010. "The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture," Working Papers 2010-27, CEPII research center.
    11. Edsel L. Beja, 2008. "Estimating Trade Mis‐invoicing from China: 2000–2005," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(2), pages 82-92, March.
    12. JA Tenreiro Machado & Maria Eugénia Mata, 2015. "Analysis of World Economic Variables Using Multidimensional Scaling," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-17, March.
    13. repec:cos:jpaper:v:6:y:2011:p:7-33 is not listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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