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Implications of the Growth of China and India for the Middle East

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  • Elena Ianchovichina
  • Maros Ivanict
  • Will Martin

Abstract

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to benefit more than most other regions from continued rapid growth in China and India. This paper analyzes the trade-related implications of this growth for the MENA countries using a global general equilibrium model, modified to take into account the focus of China and, increasingly, India on exports of manufactures from global production chains. To obtain a better idea of the implications for key countries in the region, we developed a database with expanded coverage of Middle-Eastern countries. We find that most of the gains to the MENA region come from improvements in the terms of trade, particularly linked to increasing demand for energy. Exports from the Middle East as a whole are expected to decline although exports from the non-oil economies will likely expand. Fuelled by higher incomes and by increases in the competitiveness of China and India, imports into MENA are expected to increase. In the oil-exporting countries of the Middle East, Dutch-disease effects increase the importance of policies to promote adjustment to the changing world environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Ianchovichina & Maros Ivanict & Will Martin, 2009. "Implications of the Growth of China and India for the Middle East," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 79-103, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:79-103
    DOI: 10.1142/S1793812009000061
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mitsuyo Ando & Fukunari Kimura, 2005. "The Formation of International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia," NBER Chapters, in: International Trade in East Asia, pages 177-216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hertel,Thomas W. (ed.), 1999. "Global Trade Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521643740.
    3. L. Alan Winters & Shahid Yusuf, 2007. "Dancing with the Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6632, December.
    4. Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Robert Devlin & Antoni Estevadeordal, 2006. "The Emergence of China: Opportunities and Challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 79458 edited by Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Robert Devlin & Antoni Estevadeordal, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2016. "Impacts of Emerging Asia on African and Latin American Trade: Projections to 2030," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 172-194, February.
    2. Justin Yifu Lin & Will Martin, 2010. "The financial crisis and its impacts on global agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 133-144, November.
    3. Lin, Justin Yifu & Martin, William J., 2009. "The Financial Crisis and Its Impact on the Global Agricultural Landscape," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 53208, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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