IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global food projections to 2020: implications for investment


  • Rosegrant, Mark W.
  • Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C.
  • Perez, Nicostrato D.


This paper examines the global food security picture through 2020, using a model that incorporates 35 individual countries and regions and 17 commodities to estimate supply and demand for food. It concludes that if governments and the international community maintain current levels of commitment to agricultural growth through cost-effective investment in agricultural research, extension, irrigation and water development, human capital, and rural infrastructure, the world as a whole will not experience overwhelming pressure but food security in many developing countries, particularly in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, will improve little. The paper also presents a more pessimistic scenario brought about by cuts in investment in agriculture and a more hopeful scenario based on increased investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosegrant, Mark W. & Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C. & Perez, Nicostrato D., 1995. "Global food projections to 2020: implications for investment," 2020 vision discussion papers 5, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:2020dp:5

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Cornia, Giovanni Andrea & Jolly, Richard & Stewart, Frances (ed.), 1987. "Adjustment with a Human Face: Volume 1, Protecting the Vulnerable and Promoting Growth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286097.
    2. Lewis, W Arthur, 1980. "The Slowing Down of the Engine of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(4), pages 555-564, September.
    3. Oyejide, T. Ademola., 1986. "The effects of trade and exchange rate policies on agriculture in Nigeria.:," Research reports 55, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. von Braun, Joachim, 1991. "A policy agenda for famine prevention in Africa," Food policy reports 1, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Haggblade, Steven & Hazell, Peter & Brown, James, 1989. "Farm-nonfarm linkages in rural sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(8), pages 1173-1201, August.
    6. Cleaver, K., 1993. "A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank," Papers 203, World Bank - Technical Papers.
    7. Krueger, Anne O & Schiff, Maurice & Valdes, Alberto, 1988. "Agricultural Incentives in Developing Countries: Measuring the Effect of Sectoral and Economywide Policies," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 2(3), pages 255-271, September.
    8. Delgado, Christopher L. & Miller, Cornelia P. J., 1985. "Changing food patterns in West Africa : Implications for policy research," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 63-74, February.
    9. Delgado, Christopher L., 1991. "Cereals protection and agricultural development strategy in the Sahel," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 105-111, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:2020dp:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.