Sources of Productivity Growth in Wheat: A Review of Recent Performance and Medium- to Long-Term Prospects
Sources of yield growth in wheat are investigated based on a stylized framework of technical change. Evidence suggests that the relative contribution of input intensification to yield growth has diminished in recent years and is likely to continue to decline in the future. One potential source of yield growth in wheat during the medium to long term is improved efficiency of input use, rather than input intensification, through sustainable wheat production practices rather than pure input increases. Other large gains could be made with continuous adoption of newer and better modern varieties based on advances in wheat breeding. Wide crossing and biotechnology could improve the stability of wheat yields in the intermediate term; their long-term impact on yield under optimal conditions is less certain. World wheat demand is likely to grow more slowly over the next 30 years than it did in the past 30 years. At the same time, a wider variety of technological options will need to be tapped over the next three decades to achieve the necessary gains in wheat yields. Research costs per unit of increased wheat production are likely to be somewhat higher. Nonetheless, continued investment in wheat research is necessary to achieve production levels consistent with constant or slowly declining real world wheat prices.
|Date of creation:||1999|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +52(55) 5804-2004
Fax: +52(55) 5804-7558
Web page: http://www.cimmyt.org/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Derek Byerlee, 1993. "Technical Change and Returns to Wheat Breeding Research in Pakistan's Punjab in the Post-Green Revolution Period," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 69-86.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521589840 is not listed on IDEAS
- Liefert, William M., 1995. "The Farm Input "Crisis" in the Former Soviet Union: What to Do?," Choices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 10(4).
- Anderson, Jock R. & Feder, Gershon, 2007. "Agricultural Extension," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Elsevier.
- Lynam, John K. & Herdt, Robert W., 1989. "Sense and Sustainability: Sustainability as an Objective in International Agricultural Research," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 3(4), December.
- Schultz, Theodore W, 1975. "The Value of the Ability to Deal with Disequilibria," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 827-46, September.
- Johnson, Stanley R. & Bouzaher, Aziz & Carriquiry, Alicia L. & Jensen, Helen H. & Lakshminarayan, P. G., 1994. "Production Efficiency and Agricultural Reform in Ukraine," Staff General Research Papers 757, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Pardey, Philip G. & Alston, Julian M. & Christian, Jason E. & Fan, Shenggen, 1996. "Summary of a productive partnership: the benefits from U.S. participation in the CGIAR," EPTD discussion papers 18, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Knudson, Mary K. & Ruttan, Vernon W., 1988. "Research and Development of a Biological Innovation: Commercial Hybrid Wheat," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 01.
- Barnum, Howard N & Squire, Lyn, 1978. "Technology and Relative Economic Efficiency," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 181-98, July.
- Tyers, Rod, 1994. "Economic reform in Europe and the former Soviet Union: implications for international food markets," Research reports 99, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Brennan, John P., 1989. "An Analysis Of The Economic Potential Of Some Innovations In A Wheat Breeding Programme," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 33(01), April.
- Alexandratos, Nikos, 1996. "China's projected cereals deficits in a world context," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, September.
- Battese, George E., 1992. "Frontier production functions and technical efficiency: a survey of empirical applications in agricultural economics," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 7(3-4), pages 185-208, October.
- Byerlee, Derek & Siddiq, Akmal, 1994. "Has the green revolution been sustained? The quantitative impact of the seed-fertilizer revolution in Pakistan revisited," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 1345-1361, September.
- Morris, Michael L. & Smale, Melinda, 1997. "Organization and Performance of National Maize Seed Industries: A New Institutionalist Perspective," Economics Working Papers 7698, CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.
- Abdul Salam, 1976. "Resource Productivity in the Punjab's Agriculture," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 115-133.
- Bliss, C. J. & Stern, N. H., 1982. "Palanpur: The Economy of an Indian Village," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284192.
- Azhar, Rauf A, 1991. "Education and Technical Efficiency during the Green Revolution in Pakistan," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(3), pages 651-65, April.
- Alexandratos, Nikos, 1996. "China's projected cereals deficits in a world context," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 15(1), September.
- Lynam, John K. & Herdt, Robert W., 1989. "Sense and sustainability: Sustainability as an objective in international agricultural research," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 381-398, December.
- Battese, George E., 1992. "Frontier production functions and technical efficiency: a survey of empirical applications in agricultural economics," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 7(3-4), October.
- Aly, Hassan Y. & Belbase, Krishna P. & Grabowski, Richard & Kraft, Steven E., 1987. "The Technical Efficiency Of Illinois Grain Farms: An Application Of A Ray-Homothetic Production Function," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(01), July.
- Jamison, Dean T. & Moock, Peter R., 1984. "Farmer education and farm efficiency in Nepal: The role of schooling, extension services, and cognitive skills," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 67-86, January.
- Prabhu L. Pingali, 1997. "From Subsistence to Commercial Production Systems: The Transformation of Asian Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 628-634.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:cimmew:7693. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.