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Production Risk and the Evolution of Varietal Technology

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  • Greg Traxler
  • Jose Falck-Zepeda
  • J.I. Ortiz-Monasterio R.
  • Ken Sayre

Abstract

A Just-Pope production function is used to estimate the effect of genetic improvement on the first two moments of wheat yield for the period 1950–86. The model characterizes the green revolution as the culmination of an era in which wheat breeders achieved rapid increases in yield potential accompanied by higher yield variances. To date, the post-green revolution has been an era of slower mean yield growth, but of relatively rapid improvement in yield stability. Overall, the analysis indicates steady progress in producing "better" varieties; successive releases have improved either stability, mean yield, or both.

Suggested Citation

  • Greg Traxler & Jose Falck-Zepeda & J.I. Ortiz-Monasterio R. & Ken Sayre, 1995. "Production Risk and the Evolution of Varietal Technology," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(1), pages 1-7.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:77:y:1995:i:1:p:1-7.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1243883
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lawton L. Nalley & Andrew P. Barkley & Allen M. Featherstone, 2010. "The genetic and economic impact of the CIMMYT wheat breeding program on local producers in the Yaqui Valley, Sonora Mexico," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(5), pages 453-462, September.
    2. Genti Kostandini & Bradford F. Mills & Steven Were Omamo & Stanley Wood, 2009. "Ex ante analysis of the benefits of transgenic drought tolerance research on cereal crops in low‐income countries," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(4), pages 477-492, July.
    3. Tai-Hsin Huang & Tong-Liang Kao, 2006. "Joint estimation of technical efficiency and production risk for multi-output banks under a panel data cost frontier model," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 87-102, August.
    4. Barkley, Andrew P. & Nalley, Lawton Lanier & Crespi, John M., 2008. "The Impact of the CIMMYT Wheat Breeding Program on Mexican Wheat Producers and Consumers: An Economic Welfare Analysis," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6931, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Tai-Hsin Huang, 2004. "Empirical estimation of production risk using a cost function with panel data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 297-301.
    6. Lyman, Nathaniel & Nalley, Lawton Lanier, 2013. "Stochastic Valuation of Hybrid Rice Technology in Arkansas," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142505, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. Michael Lipton, 2001. "Reviving global poverty reduction: what role for genetically modified plants?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(7), pages 823-846.
    8. Bohorova, Svetlana & Scrimgeour, Frank G., 2000. "Evaluating The Potential Productivity Gains Associated With Biotechnological Improvement: The Case Of Kiwifruit In New Zealand," Transitions in Agbiotech: Economics of Strategy and Policy, June 24-25, 1999, Washington, D.C. 25995, Regional Research Project NE-165 Private Strategies, Public Policies, and Food System Performance.
    9. Aaron Michael Shew & Alvaro Durand‐Morat & Lawton Lanier Nalley & Karen Ann‐Kuenzel Moldenhauer, 2018. "Estimating the benefits of public plant breeding: beyond profits," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(6), pages 753-764, November.
    10. Antti Saastamoinen, 2015. "Heteroscedasticity Or Production Risk? A Synthetic View," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 459-478, July.
    11. Kim, Kwansoo & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2003. "Technological change and risk management: an application to the economics of corn production," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 125-142, October.
    12. Li, Zheng & Rejesus, Roderick M. & Zheng, Xiaoyong, 2018. "Nonparametric Estimation and Inference of Production Risk with Categorical Variables," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274400, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Pardey, Philip G. & James, Jennifer S. & Alston, Julian M. & Wood, Stanley & Koo, Bonwoo & Binenbaum, Eran & Hurley, Terrance M. & Glewwe, Paul & Mayer, Jorge & Jones, Richard & De Groote, Hugo & Kana, 2007. "Science, Technology and Skills," Reports 136256, University of Minnesota, International Science and Technology Practice and Policy.
    14. Jones, Ashley D. & Dalton, Timothy J. & Smale, Melinda, 2012. "A Stochastic Production Function Analysis of Maize Hybrids and Yield Variability in Drought-Prone Areas of Kenya," Working Papers 202593, Egerton University, Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development.
    15. Gollin, Douglas, 2006. "Impacts of International Research on Intertemporal Yield Stability in Wheat and Maize: An Economic Assessment," Impact Studies 7657, CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.
    16. Rejesus, Roderick M. & Heisey, Paul W. & Smale, Melinda, 1999. "Sources of Productivity Growth in Wheat: A Review of Recent Performance and Medium- to Long-Term Prospects," Economics Working Papers 7693, CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.
    17. Nolan, Elizabeth & Santos, Paulo & Shi, Guanming, 2012. "Market concentration and productivity in the United States corn sector: 2002-2009," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 125941, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Ragnar Tveteras & Ola Flaten & Gudbrand Lien, 2011. "Production risk in multi-output industries: estimates from Norwegian dairy farms," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(28), pages 4403-4414.
    19. Ragner Tveterås & G. H. Wan, 2000. "Flexible panel data models for risky production technologies with an application to salmon aquaculture," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 367-389.
    20. Pingali, Prabhu L. & Heisey, Paul W., 1999. "Cereal Crop Productivity in Developing Countries: Past Trends and Future Prospects," Economics Working Papers 7682, CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.
    21. Thi Tam Duong & Tom Brewer & Jo Luck & Kerstin Zander, 2019. "A Global Review of Farmers’ Perceptions of Agricultural Risks and Risk Management Strategies," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, January.
    22. Smale, Melinda, 1996. "Understanding Global Trends in the Use of Wheat Diversity and International Flows of Wheat Genetic Resources," Economics Working Papers 7670, CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.
    23. Raghu, Prabhakaran T. & Erenstein, Olaf & Böber, Christian & Krishna, Vijesh V., 2015. "Adoption and Outcomes of Hybrid Maize in the Marginal Areas of India," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 54(2), pages 1-26, May.
    24. Kato, E., 2009. "Soil and water conservation technologies: a buffer against production risk in the face of climate change?: insights from the Nile Basin in Ethiopia," IWMI Working Papers H042477, International Water Management Institute.

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