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Why do projections on China's future food supply and demand differ?:

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  • Fan, Shenggen
  • Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand, and trade. Projections from these models vary greatly, from China being almost self-sufficient in grain to becoming a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences arrive mainly in the supply projections (the combined effect of land decline and yield growth). The paper also suggests methodology improvements needed in making future projections of China's grain economy, such as endogenizing government policies, and taking into account the linkage between the agricultural with the non-agricultural sectors, technical change in livestock industry, and infrastructure constraints on grain imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan, Shenggen & Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C., 1997. "Why do projections on China's future food supply and demand differ?:," EPTD discussion papers 22, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:eptddp:22
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yang, Yongzheng & Tyers, Rodney, 1989. "The economic costs of food self-sufficiency in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 237-253, February.
    2. Alexandratos, Nikos, 1996. "China's projected cereals deficits in a world context," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, September.
    3. Alexandratos, Nikos, 1996. "China's projected cereals deficits in a world context," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 15(1), September.
    4. Johnson, D. Gale, 1994. "Does China have a grain problem?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14.
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    Cited by:

    1. Delgado, Christopher L. & Courbois, Claude & Rosegrant, Mark W., 1998. "Global food demand and the contribution of livestock as we enter the new millennium," MTID discussion papers 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Wang, Xiaobing & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 2017. "Off-farm employment and agricultural specialization in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 155-165.
    3. Ma, Hengyun & Rae, Allan N. & Huang, Jikun, 2004. "Livestock Productivity In China: Data Revision And Total Factor Productivity Decomposition," China Agriculture Project Working Papers 23691, Massey University, Centre for Applied Economics and Policy Studies.
    4. Xuqi Chen & Zhifeng Gao & Lisa House & Jiaoju Ge & Chengfeng Zong & Fred Gmitter, 2016. "Opportunities for Western Food Products in China: The Case of Orange Juice Demand," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 343-362, July.
    5. Pardey, Philip G. & Alston, Julian M. & Chan-Kang, Connie & Magalhães, Eduardo C. & Vosti, Stephen A., 2002. "Assessing and attributing the benefits from varietal improvement research: evidence from Embrapa, Brazil," EPTD discussion papers 95, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Nin, Alejandro & Hertel, Thomas W. & Foster, Kenneth & Rae, Allan, 2004. "Productivity growth, catching-up and uncertainty in China's meat trade," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 1-16, July.
    7. Felloni, Fabrizio & Gilbert, John & Wahl, Thomas I. & Wandschneider, Philip, 2003. "Trade policy, biotechnology and grain self-sufficiency in China," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 28(3), May.
    8. Curtis, Kynda R. & McCluskey, Jill J. & Wahl, Thomas I., 2007. "Consumer preferences for western-style convenience foods in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-14.
    9. Chen, Kai & Brown, Colin, 2001. "Addressing shortcomings in the Household Responsibility System: Empirical analysis of the Two-Farmland System in Shandong Province," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 280-292.
    10. Ito, Junichi & Ni, Jing, 2013. "Capital deepening, land use policy, and self-sufficiency in China's grain sector," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 95-107.
    11. van Tongeren, Frank W. & Huang, Jikun, 2004. "China'S Food Economy In The Early 21st Century; Development Of China'S Food Economy And Its Impact On Global Trade And On The Eu," Report Series 29093, Agricultural Economics Research Institute.
    12. Curtis, Kynda R. & McCluskey, Jill J., 2004. "Impacts of the Westernization of Food Preferences on Medical Costs in China," 2004 Conference (48th), February 11-13, 2004, Melbourne, Australia 58399, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    13. van Keulen, Herman, 2007. "Quantitative analyses of natural resource management options at different scales," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 768-783, June.
    14. Curtis, Kynda R. & McCluskey, Jill J. & Wahl, Thomas I., 2003. "Westernization In China: A Case Study In Processed Potatoes," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22036, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Fuller, Frank H. & Fang, Cheng, 1999. "The Impact Of Structural Change In Chinese Livestock Production On World Feed Grain Trade," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21551, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Ma, Hengyun & Rae, Allan N., 2004. "Hog Production In China: Technological Bias And Factor Demand," China Agriculture Project Working Papers 23688, Massey University, Centre for Applied Economics and Policy Studies.
    17. Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Zhang, Lijuan, 2008. "Can China continue feeding itself ? the impact of climate change on agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4470, The World Bank.

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