The short and longer term potential welfare impact of global commodity inflation in Tanzania
This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to assess the welfare impact of commodity price inflation in Tanzania and possible tax policy responses in the short, medium, and long term. The results suggest that global commodity inflation since 2006 may have had a significantly negative impact on all Tanzanian households. Most of the negative impact comes from the rise in the price of oil. In contrast, food price spikes are potentially welfare improving for all Tanzanian households in the medium to long run. In comparison with nonpoor households, poor households in Tanzania may be relatively shielded from global commodity inflation because they derive a larger share of their incomes from agricultural activity and consume less oil-intensive products. Finally, the results suggest that tax policies encouraging greater agricultural production and consumption may help to reduce poverty. In contrast, policies discouraging agricultural production (such as export bans) bear the risk of increasing poverty in the long run. However, such policies would only effect at the margin (in one direction or the other) the likely impact of global commodity inflation on poverty.
|Date of creation:||01 Oct 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433|
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thurlow, James & Wobst, Peter, 2003. "Poverty-focused social accounting matrices for Tanzania," TMD discussion papers 112, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Ravallion, Martin, 1996.
"Famines and economics,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1693, The World Bank.
- Dessus, Sebastien & Herrera, Santiago & de Hoyos, Rafael, 2008.
"The impact of food inflation on urban poverty and its monetary cost : some back-of-the-envelope calculations,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
4666, The World Bank.
- Sébastien Dessus & Santiago Herrera & Rafael de Hoyos, 2008. "The impact of food inflation on urban poverty and its monetary cost: some back-of-the-envelope calculations," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 417-429, November.
- Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
- Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
- Aksoy , M. Ataman & Isik-Dikmelik, Aylin, 2008. "Are low food prices pro-poor ? net food buyers and sellers in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4642, The World Bank.
- Wodon, Quentin & Tsimpo, Clarence & Backiny-Yetna, Prospere & Joseph, George & Adoho, Franck & Coulombe, Harold, 2008. "Potential impact of higher food prices on poverty : summary estimates for a dozen west and central African countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4745, The World Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4760. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.