IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/4760.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The short and longer term potential welfare impact of global commodity inflation in Tanzania

Author

Listed:
  • Dessus, Sebastien

Abstract

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to assess the welfare impact of commodity price inflation in Tanzania and possible tax policy responses in the short, medium, and long term. The results suggest that global commodity inflation since 2006 may have had a significantly negative impact on all Tanzanian households. Most of the negative impact comes from the rise in the price of oil. In contrast, food price spikes are potentially welfare improving for all Tanzanian households in the medium to long run. In comparison with nonpoor households, poor households in Tanzania may be relatively shielded from global commodity inflation because they derive a larger share of their incomes from agricultural activity and consume less oil-intensive products. Finally, the results suggest that tax policies encouraging greater agricultural production and consumption may help to reduce poverty. In contrast, policies discouraging agricultural production (such as export bans) bear the risk of increasing poverty in the long run. However, such policies would only effect at the margin (in one direction or the other) the likely impact of global commodity inflation on poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Dessus, Sebastien, 2008. "The short and longer term potential welfare impact of global commodity inflation in Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4760, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4760
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2008/10/27/000158349_20081027141557/Rendered/PDF/WPS4760.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aksoy , M. Ataman & Isik-Dikmelik, Aylin, 2008. "Are low food prices pro-poor ? net food buyers and sellers in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4642, The World Bank.
    2. Martin Ravallion, 1997. "Famines and Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1205-1242, September.
    3. Sébastien Dessus & Santiago Herrera & Rafael De Hoyos, 2008. "The impact of food inflation on urban poverty and its monetary cost: some back‐of‐the‐envelope calculations," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 417-429, November.
    4. Wodon, Quentin & Tsimpo, Clarence & Backiny-Yetna, Prospere & Joseph, George & Adoho, Franck & Coulombe, Harold, 2008. "Potential impact of higher food prices on poverty : summary estimates for a dozen west and central African countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4745, The World Bank.
    5. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
    6. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    7. Thurlow, James & Wobst, Peter, 2003. "Poverty-focused social accounting matrices for Tanzania," TMD discussion papers 112, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sébastien Dessus & Santiago Herrera & Rafael De Hoyos, 2008. "The impact of food inflation on urban poverty and its monetary cost: some back‐of‐the‐envelope calculations," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 417-429, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Derek Headey & Shenggen Fan, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 375-391, November.
    2. Estrades, Carmen & Terra, María Inés, 2012. "Commodity prices, trade, and poverty in Uruguay," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 58-66.
    3. Craig Sugden, 2009. "Responding to High Commodity Prices," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 23(1), pages 79-105, May.
    4. Wodon, Quentin & Zaman, Hassan, 2008. "Rising food prices in Sub-Saharan Africa : poverty impact and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4738, The World Bank.
    5. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will & Zaman, Hassan, 2012. "Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010–11 Surge in Food Prices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2302-2317.
    6. Cudjoe, Godsway & Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen, 2010. "Local impacts of a global crisis: Food price transmission, consumer welfare and poverty in Ghana," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 294-302, August.
    7. Ole Boysen, 2013. "High food prices and their implications for poverty in Uganda - From demand system estimation to simulation," EcoMod2013 5438, EcoMod.
    8. Nora Lustig, 2009. "Coping with Rising Food Prices: Policy Dilemmas in the Developing World," Working Papers 0907, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    9. Luc Christiaensen, 2009. "Revisiting the Global Food Architecture. Lessons from the 2008 Food Crisis," Review of Business and Economic Literature, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Review of Business and Economic Literature, vol. 0(3), pages 3345-3361.
    10. Francesco Caracciolo & Fabio Santeramo, 2013. "Price Trends and Income Inequalities: Will Sub-Saharan Africa Reduce the Gap?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 42-54.
    11. Derek Headey & Sangeetha Malaiyandi & Shenggen Fan, 2010. "Navigating the perfect storm: reflections on the food, energy, and financial crises," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 217-228, November.
    12. Aye, Goodness C., 2012. "The Long and Short Run Impacts of Food and Energy Price Shocks: Evidence from Nigeria," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Fremantle, Australia 125048, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    13. Boysen, Ole & Matthews, Alan, 2012. "The differentiated effects of food price spikes on poverty in Uganda," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122445, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Zezza, Alberto & Davis, Benjamin & Azzarri, Carlo & Covarrubias, Katia & Tasciotti, Luca & Anríquez, Gustavo, 2008. "The impact of rising food prices on the poor," ESA Working Papers 289027, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    15. de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 2010. "The Global Food Crisis and Guatemala: What Crisis and for Whom?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 1328-1339, September.
    16. Cudjoe, Godsway & Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen, 2008. "Local impacts of a global crisis: Food price transmission and poverty impacts in Ghana," GSSP working papers 15, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    17. José Cuesta & Suzanne Duryea & Fidel Jaramillo & Marcos Robles, 2010. "Distributive impacts of the food price crisis in the Andean region," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 846-865.
    18. Delphine Boutin, 2011. "D'une crise à l'autre : mesurer l'impact des prix alimentaires sur la pauvreté," Working Papers hal-00637608, HAL.
    19. Yuksel, Hatice & Karantininis, Konstantinos & Hess, Sebastian, 2014. "A media analysis of food crisis: from qualitative analysis to a quantitative approach," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182685, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Gibson, John & Kim, Bonggeun, 2013. "Quality, Quantity, and Nutritional Impacts of Rice Price Changes in Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 329-340.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markets and Market Access; Economic Theory&Research; Emerging Markets; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Rural Poverty Reduction;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4760. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.