IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/agecon/v45y2014i3p303-312.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Did the commodity price spike increase rural poverty? Evidence from a long-run panel in Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph V. Balagtas
  • Humnath Bhandari
  • Ellanie R. Cabrera
  • Samarendu Mohanty
  • Mahabub Hossain

Abstract

We assess the effects of the dramatic rise in agricultural commodity prices during 2007–2008 on income dynamics and poverty among rural households in Bangladesh. A unique panel data set allows us to put the effects of recent events in the context of long-run trends in income and poverty. We use data from a nationally representative longitudinal survey of rural households in Bangladesh collected in four waves in 1988, 2000, 2004, and 2008. Nargis and Hossain (Nargis, N., Hossain, M., 2006. Income dynamics and pathways out of rural poverty in Bangladesh, 1988–2004. Agric. Econ. 35, 425–435) analysed income dynamics and poverty incidence for the first three waves, finding a declining trend in both the incidence and severity of poverty, aided in particular by human capital development and off-farm employment opportunities. We update and extend the analysis to include data collected in 2008, at the height of a spike in agricultural prices. We find that the price of a balanced food basket increased by more than 50% during 2000–2008, while household income rose only 15%. As a result the incidence and severity of rural poverty in Bangladesh sunk to pre-2000 levels during 2004–2008. Thus, the price spikes in 2007–2008 helped push an additional 13 million people into poverty in rural Bangladesh. Moreover, we find that the determinants of poverty have not been time-invariant. In particular, agricultural production, which had previously been associated with a higher incidence of poverty, served as a hedge against higher food prices during 2004–2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph V. Balagtas & Humnath Bhandari & Ellanie R. Cabrera & Samarendu Mohanty & Mahabub Hossain, 2014. "Did the commodity price spike increase rural poverty? Evidence from a long-run panel in Bangladesh," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(3), pages 303-312, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:45:y:2014:i:3:p:303-312
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/agec.12066
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sen, Binayak, 2003. "Drivers of Escape and Descent: Changing Household Fortunes in Rural Bangladesh," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 513-534, March.
    2. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low‐income countries1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
    3. Aksoy , M. Ataman & Isik-Dikmelik, Aylin, 2008. "Are low food prices pro-poor ? net food buyers and sellers in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4642, The World Bank.
    4. Mellor, John W, 1978. "Food Price Policy and Income Distribution in Low-Income Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 1-26, October.
    5. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
    6. Nigar Nargis & Mahabub Hossain, 2006. "Income dynamics and pathways out of rural poverty in Bangladesh, 1988–2004," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(s3), pages 425-435, November.
    7. Derek Headey & Shenggen Fan, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 375-391, November.
    8. Wood, Benjamin D.K. & Nelson, Carl H. & Nogueira, Lia, 2012. "Poverty effects of food price escalation: The importance of substitution effects in Mexican households," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 77-85.
    9. Christopher Scott, 2000. "Mixed fortunes: A study of poverty mobility among small farm households in Chile, 1968-86," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 155-180.
    10. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
    11. World Bank, 2011. "Migration and Remittances Factbook 2011 : Second Edition," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2522, June.
    12. Ravallion, Martin & Sen, Binayak, 1996. "When Method Matters: Monitoring Poverty in Bangladesh," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(4), pages 761-792, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Headey, Derek D. & Hoddinott, John, 2016. "Agriculture, nutrition and the green revolution in Bangladesh," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 122-131.
    2. Elleby, Christian, 2014. "Poverty and Price Transmission," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182722, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Mottaleb, K. & Erenstein, O., 2018. "Gender Differentiated Impacts of Commodity Price Shocks on Households’ Consumption Behavior: A Natural Experiment," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275915, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-18-00829 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:45:y:2014:i:3:p:303-312. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley Content Delivery). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.