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Poverty effects of food price escalation: The importance of substitution effects in Mexican households

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  • Wood, Benjamin D.K.
  • Nelson, Carl H.
  • Nogueira, Lia

Abstract

Recent food price increases reportedly caused significant numbers of households to fall into poverty, particularly in the developing world. Most research into the welfare effects of these food price changes assumes constant demand or approximates second order substitution effects. Poverty forecasts with these assumptions may overestimate or underestimate the effect of food price increases in a nation where most households consume diverse food baskets. We account for full substitution by calculating a theoretically consistent food demand system, accounting for household responses to food price changes by decreasing some food purchases and increasing other food purchases. We use Mexican data to confirm the mitigation of adverse welfare effects from food price increases after accounting for country-specific dietary preferences in modeling demand. In comparison to previous literature, our welfare measures predict theoretically consistent numbers of Mexican households entering poverty due to recent food price changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Wood, Benjamin D.K. & Nelson, Carl H. & Nogueira, Lia, 2012. "Poverty effects of food price escalation: The importance of substitution effects in Mexican households," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 77-85.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:37:y:2012:i:1:p:77-85
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2011.11.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rita Motzigkeit Gonzalez, 2016. "Welfare effects of changed prices The “Tortilla Crisis" revisited," Working Papers 167, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    2. Elleby, Christian, 2014. "Poverty and Price Transmission," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182722, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Weber, Regine, 2015. "Welfare Impacts of Rising Food Prices: Evidence from India," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211901, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Magana-Lemus, David & Isdorj, Ariun & Rosson, C. Parr, III, 2013. "Welfare impacts of increasing food prices in Mexico: an application of unrestricted Engel curves and LA/EASI demand system," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 143057, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Magana-Lemus, David & Ishdorj, Ariun & Rosson, C. Parr III, 2013. "Food Demand, Food Prices and Welfare Analysis utilizing EASI model," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150521, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Sakai, Yoko & Estudillo, Jonna P. & Fuwa, Nobuhiko & Higuchi, Yuki & Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2012. "Do Natural Disasters Affect the Poor Disproportionately? The Case of Typhoon Milenyo in the Rural Philippines," PRIMCED Discussion Paper Series 31, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. Arfini, Filippo & Aghabeygi, Mona, 2018. "Evaluation of Welfare Effects of Rising Price of Food Imports in Italy," 162nd Seminar, April 26-27, 2018, Budapest, Hungary 271953, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. David Dawe, 2014. "Transmission of global food prices, supply response and impacts on the poor," Chapters,in: Handbook on Food, chapter 5, pages 100-121 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Joseph V. Balagtas & Humnath Bhandari & Ellanie R. Cabrera & Samarendu Mohanty & Mahabub Hossain, 2014. "Did the commodity price spike increase rural poverty? Evidence from a long-run panel in Bangladesh," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(3), pages 303-312, May.
    10. Dawe, David & Maltsoglou, Irini, 2014. "Marketing margins and the welfare analysis of food price shocks," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 50-55.
    11. Balagtas, Joseph Valdes & Bhandari, Humnath & Mohanty, Samarendu & Cabrera, Ellanie & Hossain, Mahabub, 2012. "Impact of a Commodity Price Spike on Poverty Dynamics: Evidence from a Panel of Rural Households in Bangladesh," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Fremantle, Australia 124225, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    12. repec:taf:jdevst:v:53:y:2017:i:9:p:1518-1534 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Sakai, Yoko & Estudillo, Jonna P. & Fuwa, Nobuhiko & Higuchi, Yuki & Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2017. "Do Natural Disasters Affect the Poor Disproportionately? Price Change and Welfare Impact in the Aftermath of Typhoon Milenyo in the Rural Philippines," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 16-26.

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