IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v39y2011i10p1878-1887.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Corn Price Surge: Impacts on Rural Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Dyer, George A.
  • Taylor, J. Edward

Abstract

We use an agent-based, general-equilibrium model to explore the impacts of world corn-price increases on land use and income in rural Mexico. In the model, interactions among heterogeneous agents within a local context shape both macro and microeconomic outcomes. Results suggest that subsistence activities allowed agriculture to absorb the shock, limiting the benefits of higher prices for the population while keeping deforestation pressures in check. An estimated 5.7% corn-area expansion by 2008 and wide variation across regions corresponds well with ex-post reports. Agricultural growth led to 0.02% and 3.9% increases in real income for rural households and absentee landholders, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Dyer, George A. & Taylor, J. Edward, 2011. "The Corn Price Surge: Impacts on Rural Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 1878-1887.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:39:y:2011:i:10:p:1878-1887
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.04.032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X11001021
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.04.032?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arslan, Aslihan & Taylor, J.Edward, 2009. "Farmers' Subjective Valuation of Subsistence Crops: The Case of Traditional Maize in Mexico," American Journal of Agricultural Economics APPENDICES, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1-4, April.
    2. Hazell, P.B.R. & Pachauri, J. K., 2006. "Overview: bioenergy and agriculture promises and challenges," 2020 vision briefs 14(1), International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. J. Edward Taylor & George Dyer, 2009. "Migration and the Sending Economy: A Disaggregated Rural Economy-Wide Analysis," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 966-989.
    4. Gurgel Angelo & Reilly John M & Paltsev Sergey, 2007. "Potential Land Use Implications of a Global Biofuels Industry," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-36, December.
    5. Hazell, P.B.R., ed. & Pachauri, R. K., ed., 2006. "Bioenergy and agriculture: promises and challenges," 2020 vision focus 14, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. J. C. Burgess, 1998. "Economic analysis of deforestation in Mexico," Chapters, in: The Economics of Environment and Development, chapter 10, pages 183-222, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Elobeid Amani & Hart Chad, 2007. "Ethanol Expansion in the Food versus Fuel Debate: How Will Developing Countries Fare?," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-23, December.
    9. Jonathan Brooks & George Dyer & Ed Taylor, 2008. "Modelling Agricultural Trade and Policy Impacts in Less Developed Countries," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 11, OECD Publishing.
    10. Steve Boucher & J. Edward Taylor, 2006. "Subsistence Response to Market Shocks," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(2), pages 279-291.
    11. Nigel Key & Elisabeth Sadoulet & Alain De Janvry, 2000. "Transactions Costs and Agricultural Household Supply Response," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(2), pages 245-259.
    12. Gal Hochman & Deepak Rajagopal & David Zilberman, 2010. "Are Biofuels the Culprit? OPEC, Food, and Fuel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 183-187, May.
    13. Taylor, J. Edward & Dyer, George A. & Yunez-Naude, Antonio, 2005. "Disaggregated Rural Economywide Models for Policy Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1671-1688, October.
    14. de Janvry, Alain & Fafchamps, Marcel & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1991. "Peasant Household Behaviour with Missing Markets: Some Paradoxes Explained," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1400-1417, November.
    15. von Braun, Joachim, 2007. "The world food situation: New driving forces and required actions," Food policy reports 18, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. de Janvry, Alain & Fafchamps, M. & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1991. "Peasant Household Behavior with Missing Markets: Some Paradoxes Explain," CUDARE Working Papers 198579, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    17. Mesbah Motamed & Kenneth A. Foster & Wallace E. Tyner, 2008. "Applying cointegration and error correction to measure trade linkages: maize prices in the United States and Mexico," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 29-39, July.
    18. Taylor, J. Edward & Yunez-Naude, Antonio & Hampton, Steve, 1999. "Agricultural Policy Reforms and Village Economies: A Computable General-Equilibrium Analysis from Mexico," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 453-480, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rita Motzigkeit Gonzalez, 2016. "Welfare effects of changed prices The “Tortilla Crisis" revisited," Working Papers 167, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    2. Channing Arndt & Karl Pauw & James Thurlow, 2016. "The Economy-wide Impacts and Risks of Malawi's Farm Input Subsidy Program," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(3), pages 962-980.
    3. David López-Carr, 2021. "A Review of Small Farmer Land Use and Deforestation in Tropical Forest Frontiers: Implications for Conservation and Sustainable Livelihoods," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-23, October.
    4. Galeana-Pizaña, J. Mauricio & Couturier, Stéphane & Figueroa, Daniela & Jiménez, Aldo Daniel, 2021. "Is rural food security primarily associated with smallholder agriculture or with commercial agriculture?: An approach to the case of Mexico using structural equation modeling," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    5. Minjie Chen & Bruno Wichmann & Marty Luckert & Leigh Winowiecki & Wiebke Förch & Peter Läderach, 2018. "Diversification and intensification of agricultural adaptation from global to local scales," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-27, May.
    6. Channing Arndt & M. Azhar Hussain & E. Samuel Jones & Virgulino Nhate & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2013. "Explaining the Evolution of Poverty: The Case of Mozambique," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(1), pages 206-206.
    7. Wood, Benjamin D.K. & Nelson, Carl H. & Nogueira, Lia, 2012. "Poverty effects of food price escalation: The importance of substitution effects in Mexican households," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 77-85.
    8. Suh, Dong Hee, 2014. "Adjustment of Import Demand for Corn in Mexico: Implications for U.S. Ethanol Mandate," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169829, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Nuppenau, Ernst-August, 2015. "Mitigation of Large-Scale Biofuel Expansion with Smallholder Conflict: Modelling of Land Use Dynamics using Control Theory for Policy Design to Sustain Food Security and Improve Productivity," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 225669, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Channing Arndt & Karl Pauw & James Thurlow, 2016. "The Economy-wide Impacts and Risks of Malawi's Farm Input Subsidy Program," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(3), pages 962-980.
    11. Meza-Pale, Pablo & Yunez-Naude, Antonio, 2015. "The Effect of Rainfall Variation on Agricultural Households: Evidence from Mexico," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212457, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Navarro, Andres & Tapiador, Francisco J., 2019. "RUSEM: A numerical model for policymaking and climate applications," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Roberto Calisti & Primo Proietti & Andrea Marchini, 2019. "Promoting Sustainable Food Consumption: An Agent-Based Model About Outcomes of Small Shop Openings," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 22(1), pages 1-2.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Filipski, Mateusz & Edward Taylor, J. & Msangi, Siwa, 2011. "Effects of Free Trade on Women and Immigrants: CAFTA and the Rural Dominican Republic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 1862-1877.
    2. Mesbah Motamed & Kenneth A. Foster & Wallace E. Tyner, 2008. "Applying cointegration and error correction to measure trade linkages: maize prices in the United States and Mexico," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 29-39, July.
    3. Jonasson, Erik & Filipski, Mateusz & Brooks, Jonathan & Taylor, J. Edward, 2014. "Modeling the welfare impacts of agricultural policies in developing countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 63-82.
    4. Md Shafiul Azam & Katsushi Imai & Raghav Gaiha, 2012. "Agricultural Supply Response and Smallholders Market Participation: the Case of Cambodia," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1208, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    5. George A Dyer & Robin Matthews & Patrick Meyfroidt, 2012. "Is There an Ideal REDD+ Program? An Analysis of Policy Trade-Offs at the Local Level," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(12), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Embaye, Weldensie T. & Bergtold, Jason S. & Schwab, Benjamin & Zereyesus, Yacob A., 2018. "Modeling Farm Household’s Productivity under Inseparable Production and Consumption decisions," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274226, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Tabeau, Andrzej & van Meijl, Hans & Overmars, Koen P. & Stehfest, Elke, 2017. "REDD policy impacts on the agri-food sector and food security," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 73-87.
    8. Taylor, J. Edward & Dyer, George A. & Yunez-Naude, Antonio, 2005. "Disaggregated Rural Economywide Models for Policy Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1671-1688, October.
    9. Monteiro, Nathalia & Altman, Ira & Lahiri, Sajal, 2012. "The impact of ethanol production on food prices: The role of interplay between the U.S. and Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 193-199.
    10. Bellon, Mauricio R. & Hellin, Jon, 2011. "Planting Hybrids, Keeping Landraces: Agricultural Modernization and Tradition Among Small-Scale Maize Farmers in Chiapas, Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1434-1443, August.
    11. Mauricio R. Bellon & Alicia Mastretta-Yanes & Alejandro Ponce-Mendoza & Daniel Ortiz-Santa María & Oswaldo Oliveros-Galindo & Hugo Perales & Francisca Acevedo & José Sarukhán, 2021. "Beyond subsistence: the aggregate contribution of campesinos to the supply and conservation of native maize across Mexico," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(1), pages 39-53, February.
    12. Filipski, Mateusz & Aboudrare, Abdellah & Lybbert, Travis J. & Taylor, J. Edward, 2017. "Spice Price Spikes: Simulating Impacts of Saffron Price Volatility in a Gendered Local Economy-Wide Model," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 84-99.
    13. Ott, Ingrid & Papilloud, Christian & Zülsdorf, Torben, 2008. "What drives innovation? Causes of and Consequences for nanotechnologies," Kiel Working Papers 1455, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Hoffmann, Vivian & Gatobu, Ken Mwithirwa, 2014. "Growing their own: Unobservable quality and the value of self-provisioning," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 168-178.
    15. Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda, 2012. "Targeted Subsidies and Private Market Participation: An Assessment of Fertilizer Demand in Nigeria:," IFPRI discussion papers 1194, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. Momanyi, Denis & Lagat, Prof. Job K. & Ayuya, Dr. Oscar I., 2016. "Analysis of the Marketing Behaviour of African Indigenous Leafy Vegetables among Smallholder Farmers in Nyamira County, Kenya," MPRA Paper 69202, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Jan 2016.
    17. Sheahan, Megan & Black, Roy & Jayne, T.S., 2013. "Are Kenyan farmers under-utilizing fertilizer? Implications for input intensification strategies and research," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 39-52.
    18. Lovo, Stefania, 2008. "Market Imperfections And Class Structure: The Case Of South Africa," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6675, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Chen, Jing & Rozelle, Scott, 2003. "Market Emergence And The Rise And Fall Of Backyard Hog Production In China," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 21969, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    20. Steve Boucher & J. Edward Taylor, 2006. "Subsistence Response to Market Shocks," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(2), pages 279-291.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:39:y:2011:i:10:p:1878-1887. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.