IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolec/v165y2019ic21.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

RUSEM: A numerical model for policymaking and climate applications

Author

Listed:
  • Navarro, Andres
  • Tapiador, Francisco J.

Abstract

Uncertainties and non-linearities between processes involved in rural dynamics pose a challenge to planners and policymakers. Numerical models minimize the risk of making an inappropriate decision and assist planners with making informed policy decisions. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis of the social, economic and demographic dimensions of rural dynamics using a system dynamics approach. The resulting model (RUSEM: RUral Socio-Economic Model) consists of four main modules that reproduce the main characteristics of the rural areas, with a focus for the European case. The economic module contains the most important variables in the dynamics of local economies - for example, the provision of key services, the availability of public services, and local economic structure. The social and demographic modules use large age groups to analyse the labour market and population dynamics. The attractiveness module summarises push-pull factors affecting rural migration. The model is used to evaluate thirty-six socio-economic scenarios of rural Spain. The results show that very small villages could be incapable to stop rural decline because the absence of “critical mass” while mid-sized villages require targeted actions to reinforce the positive feedbacks of local economy. RUSEM has two goals: to offer computational support enabling robust decision-making in policy formulation in conditions of deep uncertainty and to integrate the socio-economic dimension into Earth System Models (ESMs) providing a numerical model that can be embedded into ESMs at a relatively cheap computational cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Navarro, Andres & Tapiador, Francisco J., 2019. "RUSEM: A numerical model for policymaking and climate applications," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-1.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:165:y:2019:i:c:21
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106403
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800918313776
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jerzy Michalek & Nana Zarnekow, 2012. "Construction and application of the Rural Development Index to analysis of rural regions," JRC Working Papers JRC72059, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    2. Tony Champion & Mike Coombes & David L. Brown, 2009. "Migration and Longer-Distance Commuting in Rural England," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(10), pages 1245-1259, December.
    3. Deal, Brian & Schunk, Daniel, 2004. "Spatial dynamic modeling and urban land use transformation: a simulation approach to assessing the costs of urban sprawl," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 79-95, November.
    4. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January.
    5. Barlas, Yaman, 1989. "Multiple tests for validation of system dynamics type of simulation models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 59-87, September.
    6. Kleijnen, Jack P. C., 1995. "Verification and validation of simulation models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 145-162, April.
    7. Philip Lowe & Neil Ward, 2007. "Sustainable rural economies: some lessons from the English experience," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 307-317.
    8. repec:aph:ajpbhl:10.2105/ajph.2005.062059_5 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:ipt:wpaper:jrc72059 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January.
    11. Poudyal, Neelam C. & Hodges, Donald G. & Cordell, H. Ken, 2008. "The role of natural resource amenities in attracting retirees: Implications for economic growth policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1-2), pages 240-248, December.
    12. Bruno Amable & Ken Mayhew, 2011. "Unemployment in the OECD," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 207-220.
    13. Wei, Shouke & Yang, Hong & Song, Jinxi & Abbaspour, Karim C. & Xu, Zongxue, 2012. "System dynamics simulation model for assessing socio-economic impacts of different levels of environmental flow allocation in the Weihe River Basin, China," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 248-262.
    14. Silveira, Jaylson J. & Espíndola, Aquino L. & Penna, T.J.P., 2006. "Agent-based model to rural–urban migration analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 364(C), pages 445-456.
    15. Richard Jackman & Christopher A. Pissarides & S Savouri, 1990. "Labour Market Policies and Unemployment in the OECD," CEP Discussion Papers dp0011, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    16. Prachowny, Martin F J, 1993. "Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 331-336, May.
    17. Farmer, Jane & Lauder, William & Richards, Helen & Sharkey, Siobhan, 2003. "Dr. John has gone: assessing health professionals' contribution to remote rural community sustainability in the UK," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 673-686, August.
    18. Jerzy Michalek & Nana Zarnekow, 2012. "Application of the Rural Development Index to Analysis of Rural Regions in Poland and Slovakia," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 105(1), pages 1-37, January.
    19. Bryden, John & Bollman, Ray, 2000. "Rural employment in industrialised countries," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 185-197, March.
    20. York, Richard & Rosa, Eugene A. & Dietz, Thomas, 2003. "STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 351-365, October.
    21. Elisa Prieto-Lara & Ricardo Ocaña-Riola, 2010. "Updating Rurality Index for Small Areas in Spain," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 95(2), pages 267-280, January.
    22. Nordhaus, William D., 1993. "Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-50, March.
    23. Krutilla, Kerry & Reuveny, Rafael, 2006. "The systems dynamics of endogenous population growth in a renewable resource-based growth model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 256-267, February.
    24. Maureen Kilkenny & Laura Nalbarte, 1999. "Keystone Sector Identification: A Graph Theory-Social Network Analysis Approach," Wholbk, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University, number 21, July-Sept.
    25. Puliafito, Salvador Enrique & Puliafito, José Luis & Grand, Mariana Conte, 2008. "Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 602-615, April.
    26. repec:eee:ecolec:v:152:y:2018:i:c:p:131-140 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Cavaye, Jim, 2001. "Rural Community Development - New Challenges and Enduring Dilemmas," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 31(2), pages 1-16.
    28. Bruno Amable, 2011. "Unemployment in the OECD," Post-Print hal-00641988, HAL.
    29. van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M., 2004. "Optimal climate policy is a utopia: from quantitative to qualitative cost-benefit analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 385-393, April.
    30. Guerini, Mattia & Moneta, Alessio, 2017. "A method for agent-based models validation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 125-141.
    31. Jon D. Erickson & John M. Gowdy, 2000. "Resource Use, Institutions, and Sustainability: A Tale of Two Pacific Island Cultures," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 76(3), pages 345-354.
    32. Faße, Anja & Winter, Etti & Grote, Ulrike, 2014. "Bioenergy and rural development: The role of agroforestry in a Tanzanian village economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 155-166.
    33. Grigoryeva, Nadezhda, 2012. "The Problem Of Youth Unemployment in Rural Area," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 4(1), pages 1-10, March.
    34. Neugart, Michael, 2004. "Complicated dynamics in a flow model of the labor market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 193-213, February.
    35. Pankaj Lal & Janaki Alavalapati & Evan Mercer, 2011. "Socio-economic impacts of climate change on rural United States," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 16(7), pages 819-844, October.
    36. Hazhir Rahmandad & John Sterman, 2008. "Heterogeneity and Network Structure in the Dynamics of Diffusion: Comparing Agent-Based and Differential Equation Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(5), pages 998-1014, May.
    37. Horst Siebert, 1997. "Labor Market Rigidities: At the Root of Unemployment in Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 37-54, Summer.
    38. Albert E DePrince & Pamela D Morris, 2008. "The Effects of Education on the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 45-54, April.
    39. Midmore, Peter & Whittaker, Julie, 2000. "Economics for sustainable rural systems," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 173-189, November.
    40. Ian Hodge & Jessica Dunn & Sarah Monk & Maureen Fitzgerald, 2002. "Barriers to Participation in Residual Rural Labour Markets," Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, vol. 16(3), pages 457-476, September.
    41. David N. F. Bell & David G. Blanchflower, 2011. "Young people and the Great Recession," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 241-267.
    42. Herbert Dawid & Michael Neugart, 2011. "Agent-based Models for Economic Policy Design," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 44-50.
    43. Farmer, Jane & Prior, Maria & Taylor, Judy, 2012. "A theory of how rural health services contribute to community sustainability," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 75(10), pages 1903-1911.
    44. Jogo, Wellington & Hassan, Rashid, 2010. "Balancing the use of wetlands for economic well-being and ecological security: The case of the Limpopo wetland in southern Africa," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(7), pages 1569-1579, May.
    45. Seo, S. Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "An analysis of crop choice: Adapting to climate change in South American farms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 109-116, August.
    46. repec:eee:ecolec:v:138:y:2017:i:c:p:199-222 is not listed on IDEAS
    47. Jin, Wei & Xu, Linyu & Yang, Zhifeng, 2009. "Modeling a policy making framework for urban sustainability: Incorporating system dynamics into the Ecological Footprint," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(12), pages 2938-2949, October.
    48. repec:mes:jeciss:v:40:y:2006:i:2:p:527-535 is not listed on IDEAS
    49. repec:bla:devpol:v:19:y:2001:i:4:p:427-436 is not listed on IDEAS
    50. Bell, Andrew & Parkhurst, Gregory & Droppelmann, Klaus & Benton, Tim G., 2016. "Scaling up pro-environmental agricultural practice using agglomeration payments: Proof of concept from an agent-based model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 32-41.
    51. van den Hove, Sybille, 2000. "Participatory approaches to environmental policy-making: the European Commission Climate Policy Process as a case study," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 457-472, June.
    52. repec:bla:devpol:v:19:y:2001:i:4:p:395-425 is not listed on IDEAS
    53. Dyer, George A. & Taylor, J. Edward, 2011. "The Corn Price Surge: Impacts on Rural Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 1878-1887.
    54. Calmfors, Lars, 2001. "Unemployment, Labor Market Reform, and Monetary Union," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(2), pages 265-289, April.
    55. Schouten, Marleen A.H. & van der Heide, C. Martijn & Heijman, Wim J.M. & Opdam, Paul F.M., 2012. "A resilience-based policy evaluation framework: Application to European rural development policies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 165-175.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:165:y:2019:i:c:21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.