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Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account in Small Island Developing States

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  • Amelia Santos-Paulino

Abstract

The paper investigates the dynamic relationship between external and internal shocks and the current account in selected small islands developing states. External shocks, defined as terms of trade fluctuations, explain a significant proportion of the variation in the current account balances. The external shocks have a temporary negative impact on the current account balances with a subsequent improvement, generating a J-curve type reaction. In contrast, real output shocks have a positive and significant effect on the current account.

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  • Amelia Santos-Paulino, 2010. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account in Small Island Developing States," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 855-876.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:46:y:2010:i:5:p:855-876
    DOI: 10.1080/00220381003623830
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    1. Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
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    Cited by:

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    2. Talat Afza & Khalid Ahmed & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2016. "Does Harberger–Laursen–Metzler (HLM) Exist in Pakistan? Cointegration, Causality and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition Tests," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(4), pages 759-778, August.
    3. Laurent Didier & Justinien Razafindravaosolonirina, 2020. "Regional trade agreements and exporters behavior: Evidence from some small islands developing states," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 2637-2647.
    4. Didier Laurent, 2022. "Preferential trade agreements: what lessons for small island economies in the Indian Ocean ? [Les accords commerciaux préférentiels : quels enseignements pour les petites économies insulaires de l’," Post-Print hal-03710061, HAL.
    5. Narayan, Seema, 2013. "A structural VAR model of the Fiji Islands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 238-244.
    6. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2016. "Do Multinationals Deteriorate Developing Countries' Export Prices? The Impact of FDI on Net Barter Terms of Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(12), pages 1974-1999, December.
    7. Bosede Victoria Kudaisi, 2022. "Trade, Financial Liberalisation And Current Account Balance In Nigeria," Oradea Journal of Business and Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 7(special), pages 36-50, June.
    8. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Developing Countries’ Terms of Trade," WIDER Working Paper Series 006, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Wacker, Konstantin M. & Großkurth, Philipp & Lakemann, Tabea, 2014. "Terms of Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Development: A Case of Intra-Asian “Kicking Away the Ladder”?," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 122, Asian Development Bank.
    10. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Developing Countries' Terms of Trade," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-006, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Montalbano, Pierluigi, 2011. "Trade Openness and Developing Countries' Vulnerability: Concepts, Misconceptions, and Directions for Research," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1489-1502, September.
    12. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "Do multinationals beat down developing countries' export prices? The impact of FDI on net barter terms of trade," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 211, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Françoise RIVIERE & Michel DIMOU, 2017. "Modèles et stratégies de développement des petites économies insulaires. Revue de la littérature et nouveaux paradigmes," Working Paper 0bd96404-7210-4678-93d6-4, Agence française de développement.
    14. Konstantin M. Wacker & Philipp Grosskurth & Tabea Lakemann, 2016. "Foreign Direct Investment, Terms of Trade, and Quality Upgrading: What Is So Special about South Asia?," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 28-55, March.

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