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Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility

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  • Mr. Tidiane Kinda
  • Rasmané Ouedraogo
  • Mr. Montfort Mlachila

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of commodity price shocks on financial sector fragility. Using a large sample of 71 commodity exporters among emerging and developing economies, it shows that negative shocks to commodity prices tend to weaken the financial sector, with larger shocks having more pronounced impacts. More specifically, negative commodity price shocks are associated with higher non-performing loans, bank costs and banking crises, while they reduce bank profits, liquidity, and provisions to nonperforming loans. These adverse effects tend to occur in countries with poor quality of governance, weak fiscal space, as well as those that do not have a sovereign wealth fund, do not implement macro-prudential policies and do not have a diversified export base. These findings are robust to a battery of robustness checks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Rasmané Ouedraogo & Mr. Montfort Mlachila, 2016. "Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility," IMF Working Papers 2016/012, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/012
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    2. Giménez-Gómez, José-Manuel & Zergawu, Yitagesu-Zewdu, 2018. "The impact of social heterogeneity and commodity price shocks on civil conflicts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 959-997.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Republic of Equatorial Guinea: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/358, International Monetary Fund.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Gabon: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/087, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Chen, Yao & Ward, Felix, 2019. "When do fixed exchange rates work? Evidence from the Gold Standard," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 158-172.
    6. Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2022. "EME financial conditions: Which global shocks matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. M. Tiunova G. & М. Тиунова Г., 2018. "Влияние Внешних Шоков На Российскую Экономику // The Impact Of External Shocks On The Russian Economy," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 22(4), pages 146-170.
    8. Marina Tiunova, 2019. "Commodity and Financial Cycles in Resource-based Economies," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(3), pages 38-70, September.
    9. Giménez Gómez, José M. (José Manuel), 2016. "Linking social heterogeneity and commodity price shocks to civil conflicts," Working Papers 2072/290744, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    10. Nurfilzah Arham & Mohd Shamlie Salisi & Rozita Uji Mohammed & Jasman Tuyon, 2020. "Impact of macroeconomic cyclical indicators and country governance on bank non-performing loans in Emerging Asia," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(4), pages 707-726, December.
    11. Mikhail Stolbov & Maria Shchepeleva, 2018. "Systemic risk in Europe: deciphering leading measures, common patterns and real effects," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 49-91, February.
    12. Rahman, Syarifah & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "The vulnerability of Islamic bank’s credit risk to oil price shocks: evidence from Malaysia based on ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 106776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Cheikh A. Gueye & Asithandile Mbelu & Mr. Amadou N Sy, 2019. "Coping with Falling Oil Prices: The Different Fortunes of African Banks," IMF Working Papers 2019/129, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Donders, Pablo & Jara, Mauricio & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2018. "How sensitive is corporate debt to swings in commodity prices?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 237-258.

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