IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2019-129.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Coping with Falling Oil Prices: The Different Fortunes of African Banks

Author

Listed:
  • Cheikh A. Gueye
  • Asithandile Mbelu
  • Mr. Amadou N Sy

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of declining oil prices on banks in sub-Saharan African oil-exporting countries. Results indicate that banks respond differently to an oil shock depending on their ownership: (i) domestic banks are the most adversely impacted and experience a deterioration in asset quality and liquidity; (ii) foreign-owned banks are the most resilient as they are able to improve asset quality and attract deposits but at the same time, they decelerate credit growth; in contrast, (iii) Pan-African Banks help stabilize overall credit but large banks in that segment experience reduced asset quality. These differentiated results suggest a tradeoff between maintaining credit growth and safeguarding financial stability in an oil slump which could be addressed by both micro- and macroprudential policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheikh A. Gueye & Asithandile Mbelu & Mr. Amadou N Sy, 2019. "Coping with Falling Oil Prices: The Different Fortunes of African Banks," IMF Working Papers 2019/129, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/129
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=46955
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beck, Thorsten & Poelhekke, Steven, 2023. "Follow the money: Does the financial sector intermediate natural resource windfalls?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
    3. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 519-534, May.
    4. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    5. Isha Agrawal & Rupa Duttagupta & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero, 2017. "International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2017/279, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Charles Enoch & Mr. Paul Henri Mathieu & Mr. Mauro Mecagni & Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko, 2015. "Pan-African Banks: Opportunities and Challenges for Cross-Border Oversight," IMF Departmental Papers / Policy Papers 2015/004, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Robert Cull & Mr. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Jeanne Verrier, 2017. "Bank Ownership: Trends and Implications," IMF Working Papers 2017/060, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Miyajima Ken, 2017. "An Empirical Investigation of Oil-Macro-financial Linkages in Saudi Arabia," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-15, August.
    9. Ken Miyajima, 2020. "What influences bank lending in Saudi Arabia?," Islamic Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(2), pages 125-155, April.
    10. Leonardo Gambacorta & David Marques-Ibanez, 2011. "The bank lending channel: lessons from the crisis [Financial intermediaries and monetary economics]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 135-182.
    11. Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Mr. Montfort Mlachila & Rasmané Ouedraogo, 2016. "Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility," IMF Working Papers 2016/012, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Thorsten Beck & Steven Poelhekke, 2017. "Follow the money: Does the Financial Sector Intermediate Natural Resource Windfalls?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-027/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Grigoli, Francesco & Mansilla, Mario & Saldías, Martín, 2018. "Macro-financial linkages and heterogeneous non-performing loans projections: An application to Ecuador," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 130-141.
    14. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    15. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Boateng, Ebenezer & Adam, Anokye M. & Junior, Peterson Owusu, 2021. "Modelling the heterogeneous relationship between the crude oil implied volatility index and African stocks in the coronavirus pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil & Bilgili, Faik, 2020. "An investigation of the financial resource curse hypothesis in oil-exporting countries: The threshold effect of democratic accountability," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    2. Damette, Olivier & Kablan, Sandrine & Mathonnat, Clément, 2023. "Firms’ access to finance in resource-based countries and the financial resource curse," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 1031-1047.
    3. Isha Agrawal & Rupa Duttagupta & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero, 2017. "International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2017/279, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Giménez-Gómez, José-Manuel & Zergawu, Yitagesu-Zewdu, 2018. "The impact of social heterogeneity and commodity price shocks on civil conflicts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 959-997.
    5. Nicholas Ngepah & Margarida Liandra Andrade da Silva & Charles Shaaba Saba, 2022. "The Impact of Commodity Price Shocks on Banking System Stability in Developing Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-23, April.
    6. te Kaat, Daniel Marcel & Dinger, Valeriya, 2015. "Global Imbalances and Bank Risk-Taking," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112866, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Giménez Gómez, José M. (José Manuel), 2016. "Linking social heterogeneity and commodity price shocks to civil conflicts," Working Papers 2072/290744, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    8. Dwumfour, Richard Adjei & Ntow-Gyamfi, Matthew, 2018. "Natural resources, financial development and institutional quality in Africa: Is there a resource curse?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 411-426.
    9. Mlachila, Montfort & Ouedraogo, Rasmané, 2020. "Financial development curse in resource-rich countries: The role of commodity price shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 84-96.
    10. Rojas Cama, Freddy A. & Emara, Noha, 2022. "Financial inclusion and gross capital formation: A sectoral analysis approach for the MENA region and EMs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Peppel-Srebrny, Jemima, 2021. "Not all government budget deficits are created equal: Evidence from advanced economies' sovereign bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    12. Jørgen Juel Andersen & Frode Martin Nordvik & Andrea Tesei, 2022. "Oil Price Shocks and Conflict Escalation: Onshore versus Offshore," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(2), pages 327-356, February.
    13. Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis and Development: Whither Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-124, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Simona Malovaná & Dominika Ehrenbergerová, 2022. "The effect of higher capital requirements on bank lending: the capital surplus matters," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 793-832, August.
    15. Emilio Depetris-Chauvin & Ömer Özak, 2020. "The origins of the division of labor in pre-industrial times," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 297-340, September.
    16. James Bishop & Iris Chan, 2019. "Is Declining Union Membership Contributing to Low Wages Growth?," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2019-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    17. Beck, Thorsten & Poelhekke, Steven, 2023. "Follow the money: Does the financial sector intermediate natural resource windfalls?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    18. Brei, Michael & Gambacorta, Leonardo & von Peter, Goetz, 2013. "Rescue packages and bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 490-505.
    19. Kouretas, Georgios P. & Pawłowska, Małgorzata, 2020. "Does change in the market structure have any impact on different types of bank loans in the EU?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    20. Baccini, Leonardo & Impullitti, Giammario & Malesky, Edmund J., 2019. "Globalization and state capitalism: Assessing Vietnam's accession to the WTO," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 75-92.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.