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L'« atterrissage en douceur » de l'économie américaine : vers un nouveau mode de conduite de la politique monétaire ?

Listed author(s):
  • Anton Brender
  • Florence Pisani
Registered author(s):

    [eng] The « Soft Landing » of the Americain Economy : Toward a New Regulation Scheme of the Monetary Policy Anton Brender, Florence Pisani Looking at US monetary policy from 1950 onwards shows it has seldom been pre-emptive. Without any visible inflationary pressures the Fed, howerer, raised its rates in February 1994 — an rather unusual move. The sought of pre- emptive action is justified by lags inherent in monetary policy : inflation being affected by growth with a lag and growth reacting to monetary policy with another lag, the latter has to be conducted in a pre-emptive way. This « new » approach implies a gradual adjustment of policy to the actual state of the economy. Such was the case in 1994 and at the begignning of 1995 : despite incorrect initial forecasts, the Fed finally managed to slow the US economy. It did so with a succession of rate increases that pragmatically took into account he very sharp rise financial markets imposed to long-term rates. [fre] Un examen de la politique monétaire américaine depuis l'après-guerre montre que celle-ci est loin d'avoir toujours été préventive. L'action entreprise en 1994 a été plutôt originale : sans qu'aucune tension sur les prix ne soit encore perceptible en février 1994, la Réserve fédérale a relevé ses taux. Une telle action préventive se justifie par les délais d'action de la politique monétaire : l'inflation étant sensible avec retard à l'activité, qui elle-même réagit avec retard à la politique monétaire, cette dernière se doit d'être conduite en anticipation. Ce « nouveau » mode de conduite de la politique monétaire suppose donc que la Réserve fédérale ajuste en permanence et graduellement son action pour l'adapter à la marche effective de l'économie. Tel a été le cas tout au long de l'année 1994 et au début de l'année 1995 : alors que ses prévisions ont été, dans une large mesure erronées, la Réserve fédérale a fait preuve de pragmatisme et a su composer avec les évolutions inattendues tant des marchés financiers — et en particulier des anticipations de taux — que de l'économie réelle, en ajustant le rythme et l'intensité de ses mouvements de taux.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

    Volume (Year): 55 (1995)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 171-209

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1995_num_55_1_1409
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1995.1409
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    1. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1994. "Federal Reserve Policy: Cause and Effect," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy, pages 307-334 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. M.A. Akhtar, 1994. "Monetary policy effects on long-term interest rates: a critical survey of the empirical evidence," Research Paper 9407, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. John Ryding, 1990. "Housing finance and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy," Research Paper 9008, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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