IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/37676.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing long-run neutrality of money: evidence from Malaysian stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Puah, Chin-Hong
  • Habibullah, Muzafar Shah
  • Lim, Kian-Ping

Abstract

This paper presents the empirical evidence on the long-run neutrality (LRN) of money in the stock market in Malaysia using seasonal adjusted monthly data from 1978:1 to 1999:12 based on the bivariate ARIMA framework developed by Fisher and Seater (1993). Besides the main stock index, the sectoral stocks indexes also have been tested by different measurements of money supply, namely M1, M2, and M3. Generally, the findings support the LRN of money in Malaysia’s stock market and the results are robust to the sensitivity tests of different monetary aggregates. This would imply that the permanent stochastic changes in money supply do not have influential effect towards the real stock returns in Malaysia.

Suggested Citation

  • Puah, Chin-Hong & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2006. "Testing long-run neutrality of money: evidence from Malaysian stock market," MPRA Paper 37676, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37676
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37676/1/MPRA_paper_37676.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    2. Duck, Nigel W., 1988. "Money, output and prices: : An empirical study using long-term cross country data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1603-1619, October.
    3. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, September.
    4. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-115, March.
    5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-1014, December.
    6. Ermini, Luigi & Chang, Dongkoo, 1996. "Testing the joint hypothesis of rationality and neutrality under seasonal cointegration: The case of Korea," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 363-386, October.
    7. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
    8. James B. Bullard, 1994. "Measures of money and the quantity theory," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 19-30.
    9. Geweke, John F, 1986. "The Superneutrality of Money in the United States: An Interpretation of the Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 1-21, January.
    10. Sorensen, Eric H., 1982. "Rational Expectations and the Impact of Money upon Stock Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(05), pages 649-662, December.
    11. Kenneth Leong & Michael McAleer, 2000. "Testing long-run neutrality using intra-year data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 25-37.
    12. Ho, Yan-ki, 1983. "Money supply and equity prices : An empirical note on Far Eastern countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 161-165.
    13. Barro, Robert J, 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 549-580, August.
    14. Olekalns, Nilss, 1996. "Some further evidence on the long-run neutrality of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 393-398, March.
    15. Boschen, John F & Otrok, Christopher M, 1994. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1470-1473, December.
    16. Lothian, James R, 1985. "Equilibrium Relationships between Money and Other Economic Variables," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 828-835, September.
    17. Cooper, Richard V L, 1974. "Efficient Capital Markets and the Quantity Theory of Money," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 887-908, June.
    18. Bae, Sang-Kun & Ratti, Ronald A., 2000. "Long-run neutrality, high inflation, and bank insolvencies in Argentina and Brazil," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 581-604, December.
    19. Dimitrios Malliaropulos, 1995. "Testing long-run neutrality of money: evidence from the UK," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(10), pages 347-350.
    20. Duck, Nigel W, 1993. "Some International Evidence on the Quantity Theory of Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 1-12, February.
    21. Frederick Wallace, 1999. "Long-run neutrality of money in the Mexican economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(10), pages 637-639.
    22. McGee, Robert T & Stasiak, Richard T, 1985. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? Another Look," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 16-27, February.
    23. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    24. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-415, June.
    25. Mills, Terence C, 1982. "Signal Extraction and Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory [Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money]," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 1162-1168, December.
    26. Serletis, Apostolos & Krause, David, 1996. "Empirical evidence on the long-run neutrality hypothesis using low-frequency international data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 323-327, March.
    27. Homa, Kenneth E & Jaffee, Dwight M, 1971. "The Supply of Money and Common Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1045-1066, December.
    28. Rahmi Yamak & Yakup Kucukkale, 2002. "Anticipated Money Growth and Stock Prices in Turkey," Macroeconomics 0211010, EconWPA.
    29. Hsing, Yu, 1990. "International evidence on the non-neutrality of money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 467-474.
    30. Gerald P. Dwyer & R. W. Hafer, 1988. "Is money irrelevant?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 3-17.
    31. Haug, Alfred A & Lucas, Robert F, 1997. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 756-759, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fakhri Issaoui & Talel Boufateh & Mourad Guesmi, 2015. "Money Neutrality: Rethinking the Myth," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(3), pages 287-320, June.
    2. Chin-Hong Puah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2010. "Is money neutral in stock market? The case of Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 1852-1861.
    3. Kuek, Tai Hock, 2016. "A Review of Literature on Monetary Neutrality - The case of India," MPRA Paper 71962, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Jun 2016.
    4. Wong, Soon-Ming & Loi, Siew-Ling, 2016. "Money Influence on Real Economy Activity: Evidences Review on Japanese Context," MPRA Paper 73559, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock markets; Neutrality of money; ARIMA model;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37676. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.