IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rnp/ecopol/ec2501.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is There Long-Run Monetary Neutrality in Russia?
[Долгосрочная Нейтральность Денег: Наблюдается Ли Она В России?]

Author

Listed:
  • Kartaev, Philipp (Картаев, Филипп)

    (Lomonosov Moscow State University)

  • Gerelishina, Alina (Герелишина, Алина)

    (Lomonosov Moscow State University)

Abstract

One theoretical tradition holds that money is neutral in the long run. Although the neutrality of money is an attractive doctrine in economics, the empirical evidence for it is somewhat ambiguous; this uncertainty opens up debate about how to choose the target for monetary policy. The purpose of this paper is to apply econometric analysis to test the hypothesis that money exhibits long-term neutrality and superneutrality in Russia. The article considers the long-term impact on real output and its components (consumption, government expenditure, and gross investment) from permanent shocks to various monetary aggregates. The resulting calculations show that, for the Russian economy from 1995 to 2023, neither hypothesis can be rejected in general — money is neutral and even superneutral. This conclusion is robust across different monetary aggregates. This means that monetary expansion is unlikely to increase production in the long term but will merely result in higher prices. The study found no evidence that non-neutrality was a factor in the investment channel. Therefore, the position that aggressive easing of monetary policy stimulates investmentdriven economic growth is not supported by the data. The best way for the Central Bank of Russia to provide conditions conducive to economic growth would be to ensure low and stable inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Kartaev, Philipp (Картаев, Филипп) & Gerelishina, Alina (Герелишина, Алина), 2025. "Is There Long-Run Monetary Neutrality in Russia? [Долгосрочная Нейтральность Денег: Наблюдается Ли Она В России?]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, issue 1, pages 6-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnp:ecopol:ec2501
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.ranepa.ru/rnp/ecopol/ec2501.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Puah, Chin-Hong & Habibullah, M.S. & Abu Mansor, Shazali, 2008. "On the Long-Run Monetary Neutrality: Evidence from the SEACEN Countries," MPRA Paper 31762, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Moran, Patrick & Queralto, Albert, 2018. "Innovation, productivity, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 24-41.
    3. Coe, Patrick J. & Nason, James M., 2003. "The long-horizon regression approach to monetary neutrality: how should the evidence be interpreted?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 351-356, March.
    4. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December.
    6. Kenneth Leong & Michael McAleer, 2000. "Testing long-run neutrality using intra-year data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 25-37.
    7. Olekalns, Nilss, 1996. "Some further evidence on the long-run neutrality of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 393-398, March.
    8. Boschen, John F & Otrok, Christopher M, 1994. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1470-1473, December.
    9. Bae, Sang-Kun & Ratti, Ronald A., 2000. "Long-run neutrality, high inflation, and bank insolvencies in Argentina and Brazil," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 581-604, December.
    10. Frederick Wallace, 1999. "Long-run neutrality of money in the Mexican economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(10), pages 637-639.
    11. Serletis, Apostolos & Krause, David, 1996. "Empirical evidence on the long-run neutrality hypothesis using low-frequency international data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 323-327, March.
    12. Wallace, Fred & Cabrera-Castellanos, Luis F., 2006. "Neutralidad monetaria a Largo plazo: El caso de Guatemala [Long Run Money Neutrality in Guatemala]," MPRA Paper 4025, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Noriega, Antonio E., 2004. "Long-run monetary neutrality and the unit-root hypothesis: further international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 179-197, August.
    2. Puah, Chin-Hong & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2006. "Testing long-run neutrality of money: evidence from Malaysian stock market," MPRA Paper 37676, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Tang, Maggie May-Jean, 2016. "A Review of the Literature on Monetary Neutrality," MPRA Paper 70113, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:64:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel & Noriega, Antonio E., 2015. "Long-run monetary neutrality under stochastic and deterministic trends," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 372-382.
    6. Noriega, Antonio E. & Soria, Luis M. & Velázquez, Ramón, 2008. "International evidence on stochastic and deterministic monetary neutrality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1261-1275, November.
    7. Frederick H.Wallace & Gary L. Shelley, 2007. "Long Run Neutrality of Money in Mexico," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(2), pages 219-238, July-Dece.
    8. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2007. "Evidence of the Long-Run Neutrality of Money: The Case of South Korea and Taiwan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(64), pages 1-18.
    9. repec:uii:journl:v:1:y:2009:i:3:p:197-214 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Chin-Hong PUAH,* & Muzafar Shah HABIBULLAH** & Shazali Abu MANSOR*, 2002. "Some Empirical Evidence On The Quantity Theoretic Proposition Of Money In Asean-5," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 18, pages 31-47.
    11. Bae, Sang-Kun & Jensen, Mark J. & Murdock, Scott G., 2005. "Long-run neutrality in a fractionally integrated model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 257-274, June.
    12. Tang, Maggie May-Jean & Puah, Chin-Hong & Awang Marikan, Dayang-Affizzah, 2013. "Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Neutrality Hypothesis Using Divisia Money," MPRA Paper 50020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Cai, Yifei, 2016. "货币供给数量、结构与经济增长—来自adl门限协整检验与时变格兰杰因果关系检验的证据 [Quantity and Structure of Money Supply and Economic Growth— Evidence from ADL Test for Threshold Cointegration and Time-varying Granger Causality Relation," MPRA Paper 73750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Wallace, Fred & Cabrera-Castellanos, Luis F., 2006. "Neutralidad monetaria a Largo plazo: El caso de Guatemala [Long Run Money Neutrality in Guatemala]," MPRA Paper 4025, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
    15. Ahrens, Steffen & Snower, Dennis J., 2014. "Envy, guilt, and the Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 69-84.
    16. Gary L. Shelley & Frederick H. Wallace, 2004. "Long Run Effects of Money on Real Consumption and Investment in the U.S," Macroeconomics 0404007, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2004.
    17. R. Velazquez & A.E. Noriega & L.M. Soria, 2004. "International Evidence on Monetary Neutrality Under Broken Trend Stationary Models," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 57, Econometric Society.
    18. Habibullah, Muzafar & Hong, Puah & Mohamed, Azali, 2001. "Testing Long-Run Neutrality of Money in Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 35, pages 69-83.
    19. Gary L. Shelley & Frederick H. Wallace, 2004. "Testing for Long Run Neutrality of Money in Mexico," Macroeconomics 0402003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley, 2004. "Long Run Neutrality and Superneutrality of Money: Aggregate and Sectoral Tests for Nicaragua," Macroeconomics 0402004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Patrick J. Coe & James M. Nason, 2004. "Long-run monetary neutrality and long-horizon regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 355-373.
    22. Váry, Miklós, 2021. "The long-run real effects of monetary shocks: Lessons from a hybrid post-Keynesian-DSGE-agent-based menu cost model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; monetary neutrality; monetary superneutrality; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rnp:ecopol:ec2501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RANEPA maintainer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aneeeru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.