Interpreting long-horizon estimates in predictive regressions
This paper analyzes the asymptotic properties of long-horizon estimators under both the null hypothesis and an alternative of predictability. Asymptotically, under the null of no predictability, the long-run estimator is an increasing deterministic function of the short-run estimate and the forecasting horizon. Under the alternative of predictability, the conditional distribution of the long-run estimator, given the short-run estimate, is no longer degenerate and the expected pattern of coefficient estimates across horizons differs from that under the null. Importantly, however, under the alternative, highly endogenous regressors, such as the dividend-price ratio, tend to deviate much less than exogenous regressors, such as the short interest rate, from the pattern expected under the null, making it more difficult to distinguish between the null and the alternative.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551|
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Campbell, John Y., 2001.
"Why long horizons? A study of power against persistent alternatives,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 459-491, December.
- John Y. Campbell, 1993. "Why Long Horizons: A Study of Power Against Persistent Alternatives," NBER Technical Working Papers 0142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John, 2001. "Why Long Horizons? A Study of Power Against Persistent Alternatives," Scholarly Articles 3196341, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2003.
"Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability,"
NBER Working Papers
10026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1972, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Campbell, John & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Scholarly Articles 3122601, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988.
"Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," NBER Working Papers 2511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Scholarly Articles 3224293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Shiller, R.J., 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends," Papers 334, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1991. "Tests of Financial Models in the Presence of Overlapping Observations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 227-54.
- Richardson, Matthew P & Smith, Tom, 1994. "A Unified Approach to Testing for Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 371-99, July.
- Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov & Shu Yan, 2004. "On Predicting Stock Returns with Nearly Integrated Explanatory Variables," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 937-966, October.
- Goetzmann, W.N., 1990.
"Testing The Predictive Power Of Dividend Yields,"
fb-_90-12, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Hodrick, Robert J, 1992.
"Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86.
- Tom Doan, . "OLSHODRICK: RATS procedure to compute Hodrick standard errors," Statistical Software Components RTS00147, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Richardson, Matthew & Stock, James H., 1989. "Drawing inferences from statistics based on multiyear asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 323-348, December.
- Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Temporary Components of Stock Prices: A Skeptic's View," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 199-207, April.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1986.
"Regression Theory for Near-Integrated Time Series,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
781R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 1987.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
- Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1131-1147, October.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kim, Myung J, 1993. " Predictable Stock Returns: The Role of Small Sample Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-61, June.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
- Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999.
NBER Technical Working Papers
0240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kirby, Chris, 1997. "Measuring the Predictable Variation in Stock and Bond Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 579-630.
- Markku Lanne, 2002.
"Testing The Predictability Of Stock Returns,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 407-415, August.
- Valkanov, Rossen, 2003. "Long-horizon regressions: theoretical results and applications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 201-232, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:928. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marlene Vikor)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.