Saving and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis with Bootstrapping on Panels of Countries
This paper investigates the possibility of Granger causality between the saving ratio (the proportion of gross domestic saving in GDP) and the growth rate (annual percentage change of real per capita GDP) in eighty-four countries of the world from 1961 to 2000. For technical reason, on the basis of their per capita GDP in 1995, the countries have been classified as high-income (at least 10000 $US), medium-income (between 1000 and 10000 $US) and low- income (less than 1000 $US) countries, and the three panels of twenty-six, thirty and twenty- eight countries, respectively, are considered separately. Granger causality is tested for with a new panel-data approach based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. The results indicate two-way Granger causality between the saving ratio and the growth rate in Austria, one-way causality from saving to growth in Ireland, Trinidad & Tobago and the Central African Republic, and one-way causality from growth to saving in Finland, France, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland and Niger. There is also some support to causality from saving to growth in Mauritania and from growth to saving in Saudi Arabia, but in all other cases there is no empirical evidence of Granger causality in either direction.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.latrobe.edu.au/economics|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Jody Overland & David N. Weil, 1995.
"Saving and growth with habit formation,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
95-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Christopher D. Carroll & Jody Overland & David N. Weil, 2000. "Mathematica code for 'Saving and Growth with Habit Formation' and 'Comparison Utility in a Growth Model'," QM&RBC Codes 43, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Iris Claus & David Haugh & Grant Scobie & Jonas Tornquist, 2001. "Saving and growth in an open economy," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/32, New Zealand Treasury.
- Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October.
- Vanhoudt, Patrick, 1998.
"A fallacy in causality research on growth and capital accumulation,"
Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 77-81, July.
- VANHOUDT, Patrick, 1997. "A fallacy in causality research on growth and capital accumulation," SESO Working Papers 1997008, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
- Deaton, Angus, 1992. "Understanding Consumption," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288244, December.
- Breuer, Janice Boucher & McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles, 2002. " Series-Specific Unit Root Tests with Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 527-46, December.
- Palumbo, Antonella, 1996. "Notes on Investment, Saving and Growth," Contributions to Political Economy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(0), pages 105-15.
- Romer, Paul M, 1986.
"Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
- Sinha, Dipendra & Sinha, Tapen, 1998. "Cart before the horse? The saving-growth nexus in Mexico," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-47, October.
- Orazio P. Attanasio & Lucio Picci & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Saving, Growth, and Investment: A Macroeconomic Analysis Using a Panel of Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 182-211, May.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- Holmes, Mark J, 2003. "Are the Trade Deficits of Less Developed Countries Stationary?. Evidence for African Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(3).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:trb:wpaper:2004.02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stephen Scoglio)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.