Savings and economic growth in South Africa: A multivariate causality test
This study takes a fresh look at the direction of causality between savings and economic growth in South Africa during the period 1950-2005. The study was motivated by the low and declining savings rate currently prevailing in South Africa, on the one hand, and the dwindling level of economic growth experienced in the country during the 1990s, on the other. Given the weakness associated with the bivariate causality framework, the current study incorporates foreign capital inflow as an intermittent variable in the bivariate model between savings and economic growth--thereby creating a simple trivariate causality framework. Using the cointegration-based error-correction mechanism, the study finds a bi-directional causality between savings and economic growth to prevail in the short run and a distinct unidirectional causal flow from economic growth to savings to dominate in the long run. On balance, the study finds growth-led savings to predominate in South Africa. The results also show that foreign capital inflow and savings Granger-cause each other, while economic growth Granger causes foreign capital inflow. The study, therefore, recommends that in the short run, South African policies should be geared towards achieving both higher savings and economic growth in order to boost investors' confidence and to attract foreign capital inflow. However, in the long run, the country should shift its focus towards achieving higher economic growth, in order to boost the domestic savings and to sustain a steady flow of foreign capital investment.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Talvi, Ernesto, 1998.
"Capital flows and saving in Latin America and Asia: A reinterpretation,"
13704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Talvi, Ernesto, 1998. "Capital flows and saving in Latin America and Asia: a reinterpretation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 45-66, October.
- Nejib Hachicha, 2003. "Capital Inflows-National Saving Dynamics in Tunisia: Evidence from Cointegration, Weak Exogeneity and Simultaneous Error Correction Modelling," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 43-60.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2006:i:3:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
- Abu-Bader, Suleiman & Abu-Qarn, Aamer S., 2008. "Financial development and economic growth: The Egyptian experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 887-898.
- Danny Quah, 1992.
"Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
- Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical Cross-Section Dynamics in Economic Growth," FMG Discussion Papers dp154, Financial Markets Group.
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "GLSDETREND: RATS procedure to perform local to unity GLS detrending," Statistical Software Components RTS00077, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Dipendra Sinha & Tapen Sinha, 2008.
"Relationships among household saving, public saving, corporate saving and economic growth in India,"
Journal of International Development,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 181-186.
- Sinha, Dipendra & Sinha, Tapen, 2007. "Relationships among Household Saving, Public Saving, Corporate Saving and Economic Growth in India," MPRA Paper 2597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Griffin, Keith B & Enos, J L, 1970. "Foreign Assistance: Objectives and Consequences," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(3), pages 313-27, April.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- László Kónya, 2004.
"Saving and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis with Bootstrapping on Panels of Countries,"
2004.02, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
- László Kónya, 2004. "Saving and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis with Bootstrapping on Panels of Countries," Working Papers 2004.02, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1995. "Why are Saving Rates so Different Across Countries?: An International Comparative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ashfaque H. Khan & Lubna Hasan & Afia Malik, 1992.
"Dependency Ratio, Foreign Capital Inflows and the Rate of Savings in Pakistan,"
The Pakistan Development Review,
Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 31(4), pages 843-856.
- Hasan, Lubna, 1992. "Dependency Ratio, Foreign Capital Inflows and the Rate of Savings in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 7342, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Khan, Ashfaque Hasan & Hasan, Lubna & Malik, Afia, 1992. "Dependency Ratio, Foreign Capital Inflows and the Rate of Savings in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 7348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Irandoust, Manuchehr & Ericsson, Johan, 2005. "Foreign aid, domestic savings, and growth in LDCs: An application of likelihood-based panel cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 616-627, July.
- Emmanuel Anoruo & Yusuf Ahmad, 2001. "Causal Relationship between Domestic Savings and Economic Growth: Evidence from Seven African Countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 13(2), pages 238-249.
- Ang, James B., 2008. "Determinants of foreign direct investment in Malaysia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 185-189.
- Sinha, Dipendra & Sinha, Tapen, 1998. "Cart before the horse? The saving-growth nexus in Mexico," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-47, October.
- Paul M Romer, 1999.
"Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
2232, David K. Levine.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- Mavrotas, George & Kelly, Roger, 2001. "Old Wine in New Bottles: Testing Causality between Savings and Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(0), pages 97-105, Supplemen.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:5:p:708-718. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.