Financial depth, savings and economic growth in Kenya: A dynamic causal linkage
The debate on the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth has been on-going since the 19th century. However, the majority of the previous studies on this subject have concentrated mainly on the use of the bi-variate causality test and may, therefore, suffer from the omission-of-variable bias. In addition, some of these studies have used cross-sectional data, which may not satisfactorily address country-specific issues. To this end, the current study attempts to examine the dynamic causal relationship between financial depth and economic growth in Kenya by including savings as an intermitting variable--thereby creating a simple tri-variate causality model. Using the cointegration and error-correction techniques, the empirical results of this study reveal that there is a distinct uni-directional causal flow from economic growth to financial development. The results also reveal that economic growth Granger causes savings, while savings drive the development of the financial sector in Kenya. The study, therefore, warns that any argument that financial development unambiguously leads to economic growth should be treated with extreme caution.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Romer, Paul M, 1986.
"Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001.
"LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- César Calderón & Lin Liu, 2002.
"The Direction of Causality Between Financial Development and Economic Growth,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
184, Central Bank of Chile.
- Calderon, Cesar & Liu, Lin, 2003. "The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 321-334, October.
- Jung, Woo S, 1986. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: International Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 333-46, January.
- Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2005. "Money and capital investment in South Africa: A dynamic specification model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 247-258.
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
- Tom Doan, . "GLSDETREND: RATS procedure to perform local to unity GLS detrending," Statistical Software Components RTS00077, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Abu-Bader, Suleiman & Abu-Qarn, Aamer, 2005.
"Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Egypt,"
1113, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Suleiman Abu-Bader & Aamer Abu-Qarn, 2005. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Egypt," Working Papers 206, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
- Ghali, Khalifa H, 1999. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Tunisian Experience," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 310-22, October.
- Bagehot, Walter, 1873. "Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number bagehot1873.
- repec:chb:bcchwp:03 is not listed on IDEAS
- King, Robert G & Levine, Ross, 1993.
"Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-37, August.
- Ahmed, S. M. & Ansari, M. I., 1998. "Financial sector development and economic growth: The South-Asian experience," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 503-517.
- Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan, 2002.
"Determinants of Private Saving Behaviour in Turkey,"
Departmental Working Papers
0206, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
- Kivilcim Metin Ozcan & Asli Gunay & Seda Ertac, 2003. "Determinants of private savings behaviour in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1405-1416.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
- De Gregorio, Jose & Guidotti, Pablo E., 1995. "Financial development and economic growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-448, March.
- Xu, Zhenhui, 2000. "Financial Development, Investment, and Economic Growth," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 331-44, April.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, .
"Financial Dependence and Growth,"
CRSP working papers
344, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Demetriades, Panicos O. & Hussein, Khaled A., 1996.
"Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 387-411, December.
- Panicos O. Demetriades & Khaled A.Hussein, 1995. "Does Financial Development Cause Economic Growth? Time-Series Evidence from 16 Countries," Keele Department of Economics Discussion Papers (1995-2001) 95/13, Department of Economics, Keele University.
- Odedokun, M. O., 1996. "Alternative econometric approaches for analysing the role of the financial sector in economic growth: Time-series evidence from LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 119-146, June.
- Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid, 1999. "A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 381-405, December.
- Quah, Danny, 1993.
"Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
- Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical Cross-Section Dynamics in Economic Growth," FMG Discussion Papers dp154, Financial Markets Group.
- Khalifa Al-Yousif, Yousif, 2002. "Financial development and economic growth: Another look at the evidence from developing countries," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 131-150.
- John Loizides & George Vamvoukas, 2005. "Government expenditure and economic growth: Evidence from trivariate causality testing," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 125-152, May.
- Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996.
" Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics,"
Journal of Economic Growth,
Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-89, September.
- Kelly, Roger & Mavrotas, George, 2003. "Savings and Financial Sector Development: Panel Cointegration Evidence from Africa," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Jalilian, Hossein & Kirkpatrick, Colin, 2002. "Financial Development and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 97-108, April.
- Alif Darrat, 1999. "Are Financial Deepening and Economic Growth Causally Related? Another Look at the Evidence," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 19-35.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:25:y:2008:i:4:p:704-713. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.